What election? Yes, state poll is happening

VICTORIA marches back to the ballot box after a truce between the main parties.

ON a grey and rainy Saturday afternoon, an exchange between Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu and a voter he has bailed up on a Melbourne suburban street exemplifies the upcoming Victorian election: "What election? When's the election?" asks the man after Baillieu completes his pitch.

This comment is reflective of a state coming to terms with the fact it is going to the ballot box only a few months after the federal election. The election campaign officially kicks off in three days - on a public holiday celebrating the Melbourne Cup, when no one will be paying attention - but you would not know a political contest is looming.

There are several reasons Victorians are not yet ensconced in heated debates at the pub over the merits of the long-term Labor government or what the Coalition has to offer them if it is elected on November 27.

There has been a distinct lack of game-changing policies offered by both sides of politics. People have their complaints about John Brumby and his 11-year-old government, but the opposition has yet to deliver any major alternatives. There also seems to have been a truce observed by both Liberal and Labor to give voters a break after the long and protracted federal campaign.

This blackout may help the state's incumbent government, whose main failings have been associated with its age and arrogance. Labor has been in power since 1999, when it surprisingly edged out Jeff Kennett's Liberal-led government and was able to form a minority government.

Labor then went on to win two landslide victories in 2002 and 2006 under the leadership of the popular and almost larrikin-like Steve Bracks.

Bracks was replaced by his more conventional treasurer John Brumby in 2007 and this is Brumby's first test at the ballot box as leader.

The other time he led the party was as opposition leader in 1996 and it was not successful. But this does not seem to cause much angst for the politician of 27 years.

"This will be the first as the Premier of the state so of course there is a huge sense of responsibility that goes with that, but at the end of the day my fate rests in the hands of the voters," Brumby tells Focus. "From my point of view I will work hard and give it my best shot."

But Brumby does have problems with his personal popularity as leader. He is well respected by his colleagues and the party, but voters do not love him as much as they did his predecessor. He got the lowest Newspoll satisfaction rating for a Labor premier since 1999 earlier in the year.

One of the more interesting summations of the Victorian Premier is a description - often bandied around by the Liberals and the Greens - that paints him as seeing the state as his own Camelot. No matter what happens in the city or the suburbs, whether it is a drunken assault or trains breaking down or criticism over the ineffectiveness of the Office of Police Integrity, everything is perfect, wonderful, fine. And you can guarantee it is always better than what any other state government has to offer.

That attitude caused ripples globally during the Indian student racism debacle, where a rather hysterical Indian press jumped on the issue and, rightly or wrongly, declared Brumby and police chief Simon Overland were not doing enough to deal with the attacks on Indian students.

Declaring that a February by-election in a Labor heartland that produced a 12 per cent swing against the government was a "fantastic result" also did not help Brumby's image.

"These guys are out of touch and should be out of office," Baillieu tells Focus, a mantra the opposition has been repeating for the past few years.

But if this election is decided on the personalities of political leaders, then the opposition also has its problems.

Baillieu has been leader of the Coalition since 2006 and many say he is too cautious and has not made any significant effect on voters.

Labor has successfully highlighted his family wealth and connections, and as a result his past often defines his identity and many voters struggle to grasp what he stands for.

Baillieu may win people over when he meets them on the street, but he has problems getting his message across to the electorate as a whole, which is not ideal for a person seeking to be elected as the state's leader.

Most political commentators agree that press conferences are not Baillieu's strong point and he shies away from revealing too much about himself in any interviews. When Focus spent the day with the leader campaigning, Baillieu made a point of never talking about his family, his children or his wife. He argues that his private life is private and he is the politician, not his family.

"What is the first thing you would do if you are elected premier?" I ask him at one point, trying to find out more about who Baillieu is beyond the politics, and he pauses, chuckles briefly, then answers: "I was going to say something a bit cheeky but . . ."

Why not, I ask.

"Because cheeky is dangerous."

But cheeky is interesting, I add.

"And that is dangerous."

Baillieu's cabinet is not filled with many beaming new faces, either. A few shadow ministers are still left from the Kennett era - a fact Labor uses when it suits it to reprise long-buried fears still lingering in the electorate about the Kennett reign.

So voters may be fed up with Brumby, but will they take a risk on Baillieu?

The latest Newspoll has the Coalition losing narrowly 52-48 on a two-party-preferred basis but Labor's primary vote has dropped to dangerous lows of 35 per cent.

To win the election, the opposition needs to claw back 13 seats from Labor. The Liberals have to win back the eastern suburbs and the marginal Labor-held seats of Mount Waverley, Gembrook, Forest Hill, Mitcham and Burwood. Outside the suburbs, the battle for country seats is just as important.

Key to Labor's surprise victory against Kennett in 1999 were seats in Bendigo and Ballarat, and the Coalition needs them back to form government. Labor knows this and is doing everything in its power to stop it.

Millions of dollars from Kevin Rudd's health reforms have been poured into regional hospitals and Brumby has frequently visited the country.

The last remaining electoral battlefront is the inner city. And that is where the Victorian election finally gets interesting as the Greens come into play. As political scientist Nick Economou puts it, the Greens have momentum: they "have the mo". In an election where the two main parties are unlikely to cause heated debates at the pub, the Greens, their controversial policies and their potential kingmaker role will get people talking.

Buoyed by the victory of Adam Bandt for the federal seat of Melbourne, the Greens now have the potential to seize four inner-city seats, maybe even more, at the cost of at least two Labor ministers and the possibility of a hung parliament.

The Greens' growing support - 19 per cent at the last Newspoll - is primarily based on voters being fed up with the city's problem-plagued public transport system and dismayed by federal Labor walking away from climate change.

Any Greens lower house victory is dependent on Liberal preferences, which is causing serious headaches for the opposition.

Brumby tells Focus the rise of the Greens makes his job to seek a record forth term much more difficult.

"By and large, our government has been a centre government, positioned in the middle, and that's where I will keep it in the future," he says.

"I am competing for votes with the Liberal Party, the National Party and the Greens, so we are copping it, I guess from both sides, and that makes it a challenging environment."

But the real challenge for all political parties at this election is to get Victorians interested. They have four weeks starting today.