Time for Malcolm to reshuffle

MALCOLM Turnbull is more secure in his job as Liberal leader today than at any time since he took the job 12 months ago. The reason? No one else wants it.

The opportunity therefore exists for him to reshuffle his front bench and renew the Liberal Party's fortunes.

Reports have suggested Turnbull was intending to reshuffle his front bench before the OzCar email debacle. Severely weakened at the time, he was forced to call it off. That uncertainty has passed. If he wants to ensure the Coalition's stocks improve - today's Newspoll has the Coalition trailing 45 to 55 per cent on two-party-preferred terms - he needs to make the most of the parliamentary talent at his disposal.

Two of Turnbull's shadow ministers, Chris Pearce and Margaret May, are quitting at the next election. Another, Andrew Robb, is on leave with depression. Who knows whether he will be back in three months? Louise Markus has always been a low-profile shadow minister, and with the NSW redistribution wiping out her margin in Greenway, she needs to focus locally. Without even looking at poor performing frontbenchers, that's four openings for new talent. Names to consider include: Mathias Cormann, Gary Humphries, Mitch Fifield, Marise Payne, Helen Kroger, Mary Jo Fisher and Michaelia Cash.

All are senators. One of Turnbull's problems is that he is top-heavy with talent in the Senate rather than the house. But given only 22 per cent of his current front bench reside in the Senate, despite Coalition senators making up 37 per cent of the partyroom, the opportunity for more upper-house MPs in the shadow ministry is compelling. That several of the promotion options mentioned are women would help the Coalition overcome perceptions of gender inequity. Aside from senators who should be injected into the shadow ministry, two junior shadow ministers from the house deserve promotion: Tony Smith and Scott Morrison.

Smith was dumped from shadow cabinet only because he publicly supported Brendan Nelson against Turnbull a year ago. Morrison is a close Turnbull ally and has equipped himself well as housing spokesman against one of Labor's better junior ministers, Tanya Plibersek. And Tony Abbott and Nick Minchin could be better utilised.

Turnbull needs to decide what matters more: recalibrating his front bench to maximise electoral prospects, or sticking with an underperforming line-up and avoiding upsetting colleagues.

The latter option is a recipe for more of the same: a 10-point deficit in Newspoll.