Scott Morrison facing a herculean task of getting Coalition back on track

Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

Scott Morrison faces a herculean task. The electorate may have endorsed him as Prime Minister but it is clearly preparing to brutalise the government he now leads.

Labor’s primary vote of 42 per cent is devastating for the ­Coalition. It is the most popular support the party has enjoyed in eight years following the so-called sugar hit of rolling Kevin Rudd.

Ironically, it is only slightly down on the 43.38 per cent that delivered it 23 seats against John Howard in the 2007 Ruddslide.

As the numbers stand now, on a two-party-preferred vote of 56/44, Bill Shorten is on course to deliver something even more disastrous for the Liberal Party with at least 30 seats at risk.

There is a big ‘‘but’’, so to speak.

Where Rudd was immensely popular in 2007, Bill Shorten is not.

Already Morrison has outperformed him on just about every metric. Within two weeks he has leapt ahead as preferred prime minister. He is regarded as more likeable and more trusted than Shorten. In the celebrity contest of leadership, Morrison wins. But then, so did Turnbull.

There is a telling difference, though, which goes to one of Turnbull’s greatest weaknesses and a strength of Morrison’s which will be key to turning things around.

Morrison is regarded by a large margin as being more decisive than Turnbull. This has become evident already in the two weeks he has been leader.

Political management, or lack of it, had become a defining failure of the Turnbull government. Clearly, voters believe Morrison will deliver stronger leadership.

The takeout from the second and more telling Newspoll since the leadership spill is that Morrison probably has a better chance to turn the electoral dial for the Coalition than anyone.

The return to parliament this week will be critical.

Labor’s tactical ability to create as much chaos and confusion as possible risks drowning out Morrison’s message to voters.

He will not be helped by the internal opposition operating within his own party, which is intent on denying him any sort of honeymoon as leader. The Coalition’s 40th consecutive losing Newspoll represents the second poll in a row where Labor has a primary vote above 40 per cent. The fundamental problem has gone beyond the bleeding of conservative votes to One Nation’s recycling machine.

With the Coalition on 34 per cent primary vote, meaning a Liberal Party on about 30 per cent, Coalition voters are bypassing One Nation or other protest parties and going straight over to the Labor ledger. This is a problem probably without precedent for the ­Coalition and there is no formula written for how to resolve it.

This is now Morrison’s to write.