Rudd, Abbott under scrutiny as Tasmania prepares to vote

KEVIN Rudd and Tony Abbott will take more than a passing interest in what happens in next month's Tasmanian election.

There will also be a great deal of interest in how involved each federal leader gets in the local campaign, which will also be a sign of whether they are seen by their Tasmanian parties as an asset or liability among voters.

Currently, Labor not only holds power in Tasmania but it also has all five federal seats in the Apple Isle. The Liberals' only representation comes in the form of senators.

If the Liberal Party can unseat the Labor government in Tasmania, as some are tipping, it will give them an important electoral presence in the lead-up to the federal campaign.

Tasmanian Liberal ministers would help with difficult fundraising for the federal marginal Labor-held seats of Bass and Braddon -- two electorates the Liberals held in the Howard government but lost in the landslide to Labor at the 2007 election.

But there are negatives to an incumbent Liberal government at state level in Tasmania for the federal arm of the party.

If the Liberals win, they will immediately start trying to turn the state's economic fortunes around, which might not be all that popular given some of the decisions needed will cause pain.

The next federal election is likely to come after the new Tasmanian government's first budget.

Usually, when one party takes government federally, the other starts to take office around the nation at state level, and so the cycle goes. It happened in Western Australia but the conservatives fell narrowly short of claiming victory in Queensland and the Northern Territory.

At this early stage of the Tasmanian campaign, expectations are it will go the way of the west come election day.