Rabble without accord hurts Abbott

WAS the fortnight we've just witnessed a game-changer in federal politics?

That is the question worried Coalition MPs will be asking themselves on the back of yesterday's Newspoll results, especially when they look at the net satisfaction rating.

Tensions surrounding the make-up of the Coalition's leadership team, concerns about opposition immigration spokesman Scott Morrison's remarks and some inflammatory comments about Islam by maverick senator Cory Bernardi added up to the opposition presenting as a rabble, at a time when pressure should have been on the government. As unfair as it might seem, Tony Abbott is just one bad poll away from the potential for deep divisions on the opposition side of the chamber to open right up, far worse than the mere skirmishes of late.

Julia Gillard's net satisfaction rating is up to +11, Abbott's has slumped to -11, a 22-point differential. While opposition leaders usually trail incumbents on personal satisfaction indicators, they need to be competitive, if only to quash speculation about their leadership. One senior Liberal said: "You can put up with -20, but anything higher is not sustainable."

Of course, questions about Abbott's performance should be nonsense. His value was on display just six months ago when he almost engineered the most unlikely of election wins, reducing Labor to minority government and almost achieving the only defeat of a first-term administration in 80 years.

He has earned the right to lead the Coalition to another election uninhibited by white-anting. But opposition politics doesn't work that way, especially when it comes to the Coalition. Abbott is playing a short-term game as he tries to muscle up to the government. It is relentlessly negative, which, in addition to recent divisions, explains his low personal ratings compared to the party vote.

For now, Abbott has powerful cover: the Coalition is equal on the two-party vote, having been equal to or ahead of Labor in every Newspoll barring one since October last year. But that raises the question: if the Coalition can degenerate into a rabble when it is in such a strong position, what will happen if its support wanes?