Poll brings Julia Gillard's troubles to the boil

Leaders net satisfaction rating

IF Julia Gillard was searching for some respite following yesterday's Newspoll, she didn't get it, despite improvements in her net satisfaction rating (up from -34 to -32) as well as Labor's primary and two-party votes.

There was no comfort to be found in results of issues-based polling, which was last comprehensively done not long after she took over the prime ministership from a devastated Kevin Rudd last year.

Issues-based support for Labor's management credentials has collapsed right across the spectrum. Labor MPs have been slowly boiled during the Gillard prime ministership, getting used to incredibly low polling numbers like frogs in hot water.

But yesterday's poll served as a reminder of better times just over 12 months ago.

That was a period when, despite ups and downs in polling numbers, Labor was well in front on key issues: on climate change, industrial relations, education and health - core areas for Left-leaning political parties. Gillard as a minister had carriage for two of these policy areas.

Perhaps Rudd's supporters will use the data as spin as to why she would be better off going back into those portfolios.

It's almost too late now to do anything about Labor's ruined brand, with or without a leadership change. And there are real doubts how long any bounce in support after a Rudd return would last. A day, a month perhaps?

Or would it flush out the tensions within the Coalition every insider knows exist?

Just as Rudd's false appearance of strength while PM was built on Newspoll numbers, so too is Tony Abbott's. Only he is even weaker.

If the two-party votes become closer - say, after a Labor leadership change - Abbott's poor personal ratings (-17 on net satisfaction) would be exposed. At the moment they look good compared with the Prime Minister's low ratings.

As far as some Labor MPs are concerned a change in leaders therefore equals hope, however unlikely it would be to save their seats. In contrast, sticking with Gillard just guarantees swirling around a pot, belly up, which is at the boil.