Polished Abbott rises in stature

THE alternative PM made fools of those who doubted him.

TONY Abbott is "unelectable". He will "reduce the party to a reactionary rump". "No one thinks Abbott can win in 2010; he would be doing well if he held the line." The Liberals' choice represents the "spirit of kamikaze fundamentalism". The Liberal Party has chosen "the least electable" candidate. The Liberal Party will likely face "a lengthy period in the wilderness of opposition".

Huh? Anyone want to repeat these observations now?

Even clever commentators can be blinded by orthodoxy. So, too, the hardheads in the Labor Party and the union movement who thought Julia Gillard would secure a slam-dunk election win over Abbott. Post a YouTube video about the freaky Addams Family, trot out Work Choices, and voters would side with Labor. Coalition members muttered similar things among themselves.

The Opposition Leader has confounded them all. Even if the Coalition fails to form a minority government, this election is about the rise and rise of an eminently electable Abbott, and the demise of brand Labor.

Those who prefer to underestimate Abbott will explain his success as a case of timing and lashings of good luck. And maybe a little talent. State Labor governments on the nose in NSW and Queensland. Howard battlers unhappy with a dud leader in Kevin Rudd. A brutal execution that upset the electorate. Leaks that spelled disunity in government.

But it was far more than that. Abbott's success is about Abbott.

NSW voters have endured a rotten state Labor government and ineffective premiers for years. With no meaningful opposition, there was nowhere for voters to go. Abbott pulled together a united, effective federal opposition. So effective that he started pulling the strings of those powerful Labor strategists who, in turn, pull the strings of the Prime Minister.

When Abbott spurned an emissions trading system, Labor strategists forced Rudd to dance to Abbott's tune. But the story didn't unfold as Labor planned.

The contrast between the Liberal conviction politician and the Labor Prime Minister who ditched the "greatest moral issue of our time" became too great. Abbott's spectacular rise caused Rudd's equally spectacular demise. Factional bosses in Canberra copied the NSW brutal model of politics. Execute the leader. Put in a new face. It had worked for Sussex Street for years. Gillard's elevation would fix everything. Feisty and female, Gillard would unnerve Abbott.

Except she didn't. Abbott was still pulling the policy strings. The new Prime Minister started mimicking the Opposition Leader, darting over to the conservative side on everything from border protection, offshore processing and climate change. When Abbott went all progressive with his generous paternity leave policy, Gillard tried to follow. But still Abbott, not Labor, was in control of the plot. The Opposition Leader didn't implode as Labor, and some Liberals, assumed he would. He was no Mark Latham as Labor, and some Liberals, had assumed he was. Instead, Abbott's success in the polls was unnerving the hardheads in Labor and surprising the doubters in his own party. Gillard turned into an overly cautious, two-dimensional character only marginally more credible than robotic Rudd.

Not even the outbreak of the "real Julia" could stop Abbott reclaiming the Howard battlers. Consider Abbott's success in numbers. While the count continues, Labor's loss is already historic. Not since 1931, off the back of the Depression, has the Australian electorate denied a first-term government another term. The history buffs said it wouldn't happen. Abbott made sure it did.

In the seats that matter, the Howard battlers turned away from Labor, with its primary vote falling by 6.4 per cent in NSW and 8.9 per cent in Queensland. Even in seats Labor held, margins have been slashed. Anthony Albanese's safe seat of Grayndler, once on a margin of 25 per cent, has been cut to 2.5 per cent. Peter Garrett's cosy 13.3 per cent margin in Kingsford-Smith is down to about 5 per cent.

For the Coalition to come so close to winning government with the seats so far evenly divided is equally historic.

"Something went right for the Coalition" said Barrie Cassidy on Sunday morning. That something is Abbott. When he won the leadership by a single vote, many predicted trouble. The Sydney Morning Herald's David Marr suggested the party "photographer shouldn't tarry" as Abbott's framed face would be replaced by another leader soon enough. Instead, Abbott did what those before him failed to do. He united the party. And he, not Brendan Nelson or Malcolm Turnbull, started to look like a credible alternative prime minister.

With due respect to Turnbull, the Coalition pushing an emissions trading system would not have won seats in Macarthur or Macquarie, or Longman, or Flynn, or Forde, or Dawson; seats picked up by the Coalition. Turnbull chose to martyr himself on climate change, an issue Rudd, Gillard and Labor strategists dropped. Much of the world has dropped it too. Anyone remember Copenhagen? Anyone following what's happening or not happening in the US on climate change? Abbott was responsible for changing the politics of climate change in Australia, putting it back in the real world.

While Abbott was right to tell his supporters on Saturday night that there was no room for triumphalism, he was correct to point out that the Coalition was back in business. By contrast, Labor is a hotbed of vituperation and recriminations. NSW Premier Kristina Keneally blamed Rudd and his undelivered promises for the poor NSW poll results. Gillard blamed the Labor governments in NSW and Queensland even before the campaign ended, pleading with voters to punish them, not her. The factional bosses and Gillard supporters blamed the leaks from the Rudd camp.

Others were closer to the mark. Former premier Morris Iemma says ALP national secretary Karl Bitar should be flipping hamburgers over the hopeless strategy from Sussex Street. No wonder Mark Arbib has gone into hiding, failing to show at ABC1's Q&A on Monday.

At some point, Labor may wake up to its failings. While much has been said, in time tomes will surely be written about the ALP machine's obsession with poll-driven policy and quick-draw political assassinations, its failure to manage a burned leader and its own hubris. It treated voters as mugs with ill-conceived policies, promises that stretched credulity and confused messages about a party that lost its way only to request help from its assassinated leader. And even more hubris when it underestimated its new Liberal opponent. If Labor does take a good long at itself after the election, Abbott can take the credit for that, too. Meanwhile Abbott must hope people keep underestimating him.