PM won't cash in on poor Lib numbers

THIS time last year, Malcolm Turnbull toppled Brendan Nelson as Leader of the Opposition before he had been in the job for a single year. The reason: something had to be done to improve the Coalition's electoral fortunes.

Nelson's net dissatisfaction rating as leader had dropped to negative 17 per cent and the Coalition was trailing Labor on Newspoll's two-party vote by 45 per cent to 55 per cent. Twelve months later, Turnbull's net dissatisfaction rating is at negative 17 per cent and the Coalition is trailing Labor on the two-party vote by - you guessed it - 45 to 55 per cent.

It's Groundhog Day at the Liberal Party. The 1993 hit movie depicted comedian Bill Murray reliving the same day over and over again for what must have been decades with no end in sight.

Liberals shouldn't have to wait that long for their numbers to improve, but you could be mistaken for thinking otherwise when perusing Kevin Rudd's net satisfaction rating. Even after subtracting all the people who disapprove of his performance from those who approve of it, he is left with 41 per cent approval.

That's three points higher than the Coalition's primary vote and a full 58points higher than Turnbull's negative rating of 17 per cent. It must be tempting for Rudd to go to the polls early to take advantage of his popularity, even though less than 20 per cent of voters want an early election to secure the passage of the ETS legislation.

Early elections can take the gloss of popular leaders. Just ask former West Australian premier Alan Carpenter. He was seen as above politics but lost that tag quickly after cynically going to an early election in September last year to try to take advantage of a leadership change in the WA Liberal Party. He lost.

In 1984, Bob Hawke tried to cash in on a divided federal Liberal Party under Andrew Peacock, just 20 months after winning government. Voters didn't like it and the Liberals narrowed Labor's majority. Hawke's popularity was never the same.

The leaders' ratings confirm Turnbull is vulnerable. And with interest rates and more debt just around the corner, an early poll would be nicely timed to precede such pressure points.

But it remains unlikely. The next half-Senate election, due in the second half of next year, will strip the Coalition of its strong result in 2004, and by holding off on polling day, Rudd can prolong his already lengthy honeymoon. It is less likely to sustain itself into a second term so why would Rudd bring that moment forward if he doesn't need to?