Minors all that saves Julia from knife

Leaders' net satisfaction

HOW the mighty have fallen. First it was Kevin Rudd, now it's Julia Gillard.

Rudd's support in Labor's first term was so high that his net satisfaction rating - the percentage of voters satisfied with his performance minus those who are dissatisfied - hit +49 in December 2008. By the time he was rolled as prime minister in late June 2010, it had collapsed to its lowest level, -19.

Gillard's first net satisfaction rating as PM was registered last July at a high of +19. According to the latest Newspoll, as the one-year anniversary of the coup approaches, it has collapsed to a paltry -25: the worst rating on record.

If that doesn't tell enough of a story about how fragile the current Prime Minister's authority has become, and the difficulties she is experiencing connecting with voters, consider her preferred Prime Minister rating. Gillard only narrowly leads Tony Abbott 41 to 38 per cent.

We know how unpopular Abbott is, partly because of voter doubts about his suitability for the prime ministership, partly because he is deliberately prosecuting a negative campaign against the PM and her government. Yet his net satisfaction rating is better than Gillard's (still unimpressive at -17) and he is only three percentage points short of matching the PM on the preferred stakes.

Incumbents usually lead their political opponents, even when facing electoral annihilation. Paul Keating led John Howard on the preferred PM ratings in the final Newspoll before their March 1996 showdown by 45 to 40 per cent. Yet Labor went on to register its worst electoral result other than the rout that occurred during the Whitlam years.

In 1998, when Howard scraped home with less than 49 per cent of the two-party vote fighting to secure a mandate for implementing a goods and services tax - losing most of the seats gained at the previous election - he still led Kim Beazley in the preferred PM stakes 42 to 37 per cent.

Gillard is only safe from a knifing similar to that which Rudd had inflicted on him a year ago because there are no guarantees that the independents and the Greens would continue to support Labor under a new leader.

In terms of community attitudes towards our political leaders we have hit a debilitating low.