Julia Gillard may be too far gone to recover

Net satisfaction

TWO years ago today, Newspoll published its first results since the extraordinary OzCar events that backfired on the opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull. His net satisfaction rating plummeted to -33. Six months later, he was gone, replaced by Tony Abbott.

Yesterday Newspoll recorded Julia Gillard's net satisfaction rating at a new low, -34, one point worse than Turnbull's nadir. We'll have to wait six more months to see whether the symmetry of the twin events completes itself.

Of course, the likelihood is that the Prime Minister will survive beyond the end of the year, even all the way until the next election. Her power base is her agreement with the independents. As Rob Oakeshott has said, his handshake was with Gillard - nobody else. A switch of leader risks an immediate election.

But you do have to wonder how much worse things can get for the Prime Minister before they get better. Since she announced the carbon tax backflip her net satisfaction rating has steadily worsened, with two minor dead cat bounces along the way.

Turnbull's net satisfaction rating steadily improved from its post-OzCar low, even if his numbers remained firmly in the red. By the time he was rolled as Liberal leader his rating was -14, interestingly only one point worse than Abbott's current rating of -13.

The major difference is that when Turnbull lost his job the PM was still Kevin Rudd, and his net satisfaction rating was +22. In contrast, an unpopular Abbott has a far more unpopular prime minister on the run, reflected in Labor's low primary and two-party votes.

Labor continues to bank on improvements in its polling numbers once it beds down the carbon tax legislation.

But the government should be worried about Gillard's ability to blunt Abbott's attacks given how unpopular she has become. With such low numbers, I am not sure she still has the public's attention.