Gillard pulls off a narrow victory

JULIA Gillard managing to pull off a narrow victory in the community forum in Queensland is the political equivalent of a landslide win.

Why? Because the crowd came from Kevin Rudd's home state and because Tony Abbott had done so well at the first forum in Western Sydney. Gillard's performance must be a relief for Labor strategists and a major headache for Liberal strategists who were hoping the forum would help them win key marginal seats.

Expectations suggested this was Abbott's moment to shine and build momentum in the final days of the campaign. Instead, he stumbled under questioning about the detail of his economic plan and voters were cynical about his negative campaigning (as they were about negative campaigning generally). The crowd was tougher on him than the crowd assembled in NSW.

Gillard faced inevitable questions about her removal of Rudd, but the audience reaction suggested that wounds in Queensland are healing on that issue, which could help Labor hold more Sunshine state seats than opinion polls have been predicting. On big picture issues she spoke far better than Abbott did, and with more vision.

Abbott wanted the community forum and refused to debate the prime minister before hand on the economy. It played into Labor's advertising pitch that he was afraid to match his economic know how and credentials with Gillard's. Instead he deliberately tried to cajole her into a short debate the evening before which he knew didn't fit in with her campaign schedule. Last night he got exactly what he wanted with the venue, the structure of the evening and the forum, yet he still was judged the loser by a bare majority.

The close Labor win could be a sign of things to come as counting begins on Saturday night. Certainly Gillard's win makes that more likely.