For Labor it's Julia or bust

Leaders' net satisfaction ratings

THE irony of Labor's woes is delicious. Kevin Rudd lost personal support after he junked the emissions trading scheme.

Julia Gillard's fell away after she declared she would introduce a carbon tax to compensate for having done so.

Climate change may have wedged the Coalition when Malcolm Turnbull was its leader, but today it is entirely Labor's difficulty to overcome.

The Prime Minister's net satisfaction rating - the percentage of voters satisfied with her performance minus those who are dissatisfied - has fallen from minus 7 to minus 10. Tony Abbott's ratings have improved, but from a lower base. His numbers have lifted from minus 21 to minus 17.

It really is a case of who voters consider the lesser of two evils.

Before 2007, after 11 1/2 years in office, John Howard's net satisfaction rating was still positive at plus 6. Admittedly, Rudd's rating was a remarkable plus 37, a sure sign that an "it's time" factor was the dominant theme at the election.

Gillard will console herself in one of two ways, both of which are cold comfort. First, Howard's ratings were also poor once upon a time, specifically during his selling of the GST, and he eventually won the argument at the 1998 election. However, Howard had a buffer of nearly four dozen seats as part of one of the largest electoral majorities in Australian history following the 1996 thrashing of Paul Keating. Gillard is leading a minority government in alliance with the Greens, supported by a gaggle of independents.

Second, Gillard has better personal ratings than Rudd did when Labor moved against him. The Newspoll immediately before Rudd was ousted as leader put his net satisfaction rating at minus 19, nearly twice as bad as Gillard's. And Abbott's rating was better then than now, at minus 11.

In all likelihood Labor won't move on Gillard, no matter how bad her numbers get. To do so would emulate the NSW approach of changing leaders with gay abandon, and the independents would likely withdraw their support.

It's Gillard or bust, despite Labor having just registered its worst two-party-preferred result since 2003.