Costello exit clears way for Hockey

PETER Costello's decision to retire before the end of the present parliamentary term and force a by-election for his Victorian seat of Higgins is a gift to all Liberals including, believe it or not, embattled party leader Malcolm Turnbull.

While the conservatives would have rated their chances at the next election (and perhaps the one after that) more favourably had Costello chosen to lead rather than leave, his departure opens the way for Joe Hockey to take over from Turnbull.

It has been obvious since the OzCar affair that Turnbull is a damaged leader teetering on the edge of oblivion. His satisfaction ratings have languished at historic lows for months.

The only thing that has saved his leadership has been the lack of a viable alternative.

By putting his leadership on the line so aggressively last week on an issue at odds with the views of his broader back bench, Turnbull signed his political death warrant.

The only unanswered questions about his departure are what the timing and circumstances will be.

Enter Hockey, who confirmed yesterday he has been approached by colleagues about taking over the leadership. He has recently indicated privately he would be willing to take over if drafted. But he doesn't want to knife Turnbull, getting blood on his hands in the process.

A smart political operator with years of experience inside the Liberal Party organisation, Hockey knows that doing so could damage his nice-guy image, built up over many years, including when appearing on the Seven Network's Sunrise alongside Kevin Rudd.

Conservatives have never warmed to the moderate Hockey as a leadership option - instead they have always held on to the hope that Costello might emerge late in the electoral cycle and do a Colin Barnett-style leadership comeback.

With the Costello option now gone, and with Turnbull's authority in tatters, conservative hardheads have given the green light for a Hockey takeover, almost certainly this side of the new year.

In fact, Liberal MPs from both the moderate and conservative camps were counting the numbers last night.

The gift of Costello's departure for Hockey is that he no longer looms as an alternative leader.

The by-election in Higgins will usher into the parliament a talented female, Kelly O'Dwyer, who is capable of going straight on to the Coalition front bench along with Paul Fletcher, who is the candidate for Brendan Nelson's old Sydney seat of Bradfield.

Hockey could do a frontbench reshuffle if he becomes leader, and genuinely claim the Liberals have renewed in the wake of the Howard years.

The poor performing deputy leader, Julie Bishop, would be replaced with either Tony Smith, creating a NSW-Victorian leadership team, or Tony Abbott, if his experience from the Howard years was deemed more valuable.

Either leadership duo would be a dramatic improvement on the present pair.

So why would all of this suit Turnbull? It gives him a chance to extricate himself from looming electoral annihilation, which he would be blamed for. He would be stepping down as leader over a principle - the emissions trading scheme - that he believes in. He could go to the back bench or take a frontbench role, and continue to learn about politics to build experience for a possible comeback.

The more likely scenario is that Turnbull would leave politics and go back into the business world. Given the problems he is having, even that would feel like a gift.