Cap-and-trade will be a no-go zone for leaders

WHEN Barack Obama visits Australia this month, Kevin Rudd will have to be careful what he chooses to discuss.

The Prime Minister won't easily be able to discuss their shared commitment to a cap-and-trade emissions trading scheme, now that the President's close Democrat allies in the US Senate are looking at an alternative model more akin to Tony Abbott's.

They certainly won't be able to discuss nuclear power, given that Rudd has ruled out Australia even having a debate about it. Obama recently described investing in nuclear energy as a "necessary step" towards environmentally friendly energy usage. Rudd likes to scare voters by canvassing where the Coalition would place nuclear reactors if it adopted such a policy.

Although a majority of Australians continue to support some form of action to combat climate change, the trend lines in opinion polls suggest there is considerable movement away from Rudd's preferred plan.

If the US doesn't enact a cap-and-trade system, on the back of most of the world, Europe excepted, also refusing to do so, the Rudd government will be left in an awkward position.

It can't walk away from its ETS given the political capital it has wrapped up in introducing such a system. But it can't be comfortable fighting an election to win support for legislating for an ETS now that doing so is becoming the exception to the global rule.

A visit by a US president is a bonus for any incumbent during an election year. But at their joint press conferences, questions will inevitably delve into the mutually assured destruction of ETS legislation in both their senates. It will take the gloss off an otherwise useful public relations exercise.