Both leaders need positives to thrive

Leaders' net satisfaction ratings

EVERY cloud has a silver lining. The silver lining on Julia Gillard's dark cloud of poor opinion polling comes in two forms: her rival Tony Abbott is similarly unpopular; and, for the first time in four Newspolls, the Prime Minister's net satisfaction rating has edged north rather than trend south.

But it isn't much of a reprieve for Gillard. Two weeks ago, her net satisfaction rating was minus 21; it's now minus 19. Both numbers put her in the "clearly unpopular" category. The Opposition Leader's rating has slipped from minus 6 a month ago to minus 16 yesterday. When disunity becomes the media narrative for the Coalition, the leader suffers.

Australians - compelled to attend polling booths courtesy of our compulsory voting system - are sending pollsters a message each fortnight that they don't like the leadership of either major party. But there is no changing leaders. Abbott is secure after his stunning performance at the last election. And Gillard can't be challenged without the risk that the crossbenchers withdraw support for the minority government.

That means the success, or failure, of each leader will be measured by whether they can improve their standing. In Gillard's case, she needs to do so to improve Labor's weak primary and two-party-preferred votes. Abbott needs to work on his popularity to save the Coalition's lead for potentially tougher times ahead.

The time will come when Labor will get its act together and the opposition needs to look like a viable alternative, not simply the messenger of why Labor is a failure. Policy development is the means to achieving alternative government status. It is also the way for Abbott to lift his personal numbers. It was no coincidence that a month ago, when the Opposition Leader was more popular than he is now, he had recently released statements on mental health, Aboriginal care in the Northern Territory and welfare-to-work reforms.

Whichever leader works their way into a positive net satisfaction rating will be the favourite at an election. If neither does, voters will be left dispirited on polling day when they are compelled to vote.