Abbott needs to move on from fringe dwellers

THE government and left-wing sections of the press gallery aren't the only ones who think Tony Abbott erred in attending the rally in front of Parliament House on Wednesday.

"Don't think that we weren't asked to attend the rally. Lots of us were but we politely declined. Tony shouldn't have gotten himself into the position that he did." That quote came from one of Abbott's shrewdest senior colleagues.

The Opposition Leader was accompanied at the rally by the likes of Pauline Hanson, members of the League of Rights, Chris Smith from radio 2GB - who ran a competition asking listeners to guess how many people were killed in the tragedy off Christmas Island - and a host of frustrated citizens carrying offensive banners including "ditch the witch" and "Bob Brown's bitch", referring to our Prime Minister, Julia Gillard.

That is what happens in this country when shock jocks call the Prime Minister a liar and admonish her like a schoolgirl when interviewing her. Respect in the system - a bedrock of conservatism - is lost. It was the same for John Howard when the fringe elements of the Left couldn't handle his agenda or, indeed, his backflip on the GST (yes, unlike Gillard he took it to an election).

It was as if Abbott jumped head first into the Mad Hatter's Tea Party when fronting the rally, only wondering what he was doing after it was too late. He told the crowd climate change was real, before other speakers disagreed vehemently. Abbott's words largely were considered. When Barnaby Joyce spoke, Joyce looked as if he were going to burst a blood vessel.

It was always going to be hard for Abbott to refuse to front the rally after he coined the phrase "people's revolt" to challenge the carbon tax, and he whipped up the frenzy that confronted him in the unbecoming way that it did.

Perhaps the most unedifying aspect of the rally was that Abbott endorsed it with his initial refusal to condemn it, or indeed with his comment that it was a "snapshot of middle Australia". If it really was a snapshot, it shows why our politicians must lead and not just follow public opinion.

Abbott highlighted his own failing as a leader when in parliament on Thursday he called on the Prime Minister to condemn riffraff in the public gallery attacking him if she expected Abbott to do the same at the rally the day before. She did exactly that, leaving Abbott looking flat-footed. But the government has to be careful too. Frankly, its speed in condemning Abbott should have been left to commentators. Ministers (and the Prime Minister) weighing in looked shrill.

Placards carrying words such as bitch and witch personified the misogynistic nature of many of the attacks on the Prime Minister on Wednesday.

For an Opposition Leader constantly accused of having a problem with women, at least according to the polls, allowing himself to be anywhere near such images was very poor politicking. It was something Abbott's advancers (staffers charged with ensuring leaders don't walk into politically unpalatable situations) needed to address. Abbott's office has been desperate to put out that Greens leader Bob Brown once attended a rally against the Iraq war that included offensive banners condemning John Howard. I am sure he did, which is why the Greens struggle to elevate their vote beyond single digits. As though comparing what the alternative Prime Minister does with what the leader of a fringe party does serves any purpose other than highlighting that Abbott is struggling to hold the middle ground.

There is (and should be) a different standard for the alternative prime minister compared with the leader of a minority party. If Brown is the extremist Abbott and the Coalition warn us he is, what is Abbott doing emulating the quality of the company Brown keeps?

Just as Howard welcomed the fringe Left attacking him, the Labor Party must be pleased fringe elements of the Right are attacking the carbon tax. And the Opposition Leader has affiliated himself with them.

This week's Newspoll put Abbott on notice. The government is selling its unpopular carbon tax poorly and the sale is in direct violation of an election commitment.

All this adds up to understandable anger in certain quarters of the community. And it explains why Coalition MPs are buoyant about their chances at the next election. Despite all the above, Abbott's personal ratings are low: his net satisfaction rating is almost as low as Malcolm Turnbull's was immediately after the Oz Car affair, and it continues to track downwards. The ALP's primary vote picked up six points on the latest Newspoll, albeit from low levels, and Abbott's preferred prime minister standing has fallen further, with the two-party vote now narrowly favouring Labor (51 per cent to 49 per cent).

The government isn't restoring its position with quality campaigning and argument. Not yet. Rather, voters are concerned about the viability of the alternative government and whether the alternative prime minister would govern for all Australians, or just for the fringe dwellers he spends so much time pandering to.

Abbott can take full credit for making the Coalition competitive in the wake of Turnbull's disastrous leadership. But now is the time for him to shift gears and spell out a positive agenda, keeping a healthy distance from his fringe supporters who under no circumstances will be voting Labor at the next election.

If Labor's problem is that it has been cosying up to the Greens too much, hence pushing it to the Left, Abbott's problem is that he is cosying up to the so-called outsiders, who are broadly on the Right of the political spectrum and are mistaken for mainstream Australians. Howard always kept certain shock jocks at arm's length when they incorrectly thought they had his ear. Abbott must employ similar caution, lest he be viewed as a minion of the likes of Alan Jones who, while an excellent shock jock, wasn't able to appeal broadly enough to win even one of his five election attempts for the conservatives.

Back to Wednesday's rally. A senior member of the Liberal Party's parliamentary ranks asked me: "Is that the future of the Liberal Party: Abbott out in front of a loony collection flanked by Bronwyn Bishop and Sophie Mirabella?" At the moment, yes it is. Moderate liberalism is a dead force in the Liberal Party and Abbott's mates include right-wing colleagues who have his ear. That shouldn't be an issue, however. Bishop did a good job in the last campaign and Mirabella is a worthy frontbencher from the next generation.

But factional moaning about the insiders and the outsiders in the parliamentary ranks of the opposition becomes more common when Abbott turns himself into the story. It's a recipe for instability at a time when the government's broken election promise should be the issue.

Peter van Onselen is a Winthrop professor at the University of Western Australia.