On Mutiny: Tony Abbott threat prompted Malcolm Turnbull’s demise, writes David Speers

A threat from Abbott sowed the seeds of Turnbull’s demise, according to the first book to be published since the Liberal leadership spill.

Tony Abbott during Question Time in the House of Representatives Chamber at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: Kym Smith

A threat from Tony Abbott sowed the seeds of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise, according to the first book to be published following the August Liberal leadership spill.

Sky News political editor David Speers spoke to dozens of Liberal MPs for his Melbourne University Press book On Mutiny, on the proviso that their quotes would not be published until after the Wentworth by-election.

The book — which reveals the active role played by Scott Morrison’s numbers men Stuart Robert and Alex Hawke — will be available tomorrow.

Speers says Mr Turnbull’s demise began with his one-seat election win in 2016, detailing a discussion the then prime minister had with his predecessor Tony Abbott on the sidelines of a party conference in late 2016.

“(Mr Turnbull) made it absolutely crystal clear that as long as he was leader, I would never be in his cabinet,” Mr Abbott told Speers.

“I said, fair enough Malcolm, that’s your decision, but I’ll do my thing on the backbench. You’ve got more to lose than I have.”

Mr Abbott told Speers he went on to make life tough for Mr Turnbull, regularly critiquing him in media interviews.

“I mean, one of Turnbull’s fundamental mistakes was not holding out an olive branch to me after the 2016 election,” Mr Abbott said.

As Speers writes, the spill gained real momentum following the government’s poor showing in the July Longman by-election, which saw the LNP receive a primary vote of just 29.61 per cent, and Labor’s Susan Lamb retain the seat 54.45 to 45.55 two-party-preferred.

While campaigning in Longman and hearing the angry feedback of voters, Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton began to contemplate a move against the prime minister, and when parliament resumed, conservatives revolted against the national energy guarantee.

Mr Dutton discussed a leadership tilt with senior colleagues, and initially planned to move in September, but Queensland marginal seat holder Luke Howarth prompted an earlier move by planning to call for a vote in the party room.

Mr Turnbull learnt of Mr Howarth’s intention, and beat him to it by declaring the leadership vacant, in a move which saw Mr Dutton secure 35 of 84 votes in the party room.

According to Speers, the move surprised and angered several of Mr Turnbull’s cabinet colleagues, including Senate leader Mathias Cormann, who nevertheless told those sitting with him in the party room to support Mr Turnbull.

While Mr Turnbull had survived, he was badly wounded.

A critical meeting then took place between Mr Turnbull, Senator Cormann and Mr Dutton where the idea of making Mr Dutton deputy leader was discussed, but the prime ministerial aspirant was not interested.

As The Australian revealed at the time, Morrison backers Alex Hawke and Stuart Robert began canvassing support for their man from 7am on the Wednesday, although Mr Morrison had told his numbers men he would not contest a ballot against Mr Turnbull.

Just before midday on the Wednesday Senator Cormann visited Mr Turnbull to tell him he no longer had the majority support of the party room, returning later that afternoon with senior senators Mitch Fifield and Michaelia Cash, who said they were supporting Mr Dutton, believing they had a majority.

Mr Turnbull then refused to hold a party room meeting to spill the leadership until 43 MPs signed a petition, telling a press conference that if the leadership was spilled he would not contest.

Moderate leaders Christopher Pyne, Simon Birmingham, Paul Fletcher and Trent Zimmerman then met to run the numbers on Mr Morrison and fellow contender Julie Bishop to decide who to back, concluding that they must back Mr Morrison to prevent Mr Dutton becoming prime minister, or he would beat Ms Bishop 44 votes to 38.

According to Speers, Ms Bishop was the only candidate to call every Liberal colleague and request their support.

Mr Morrison then joined his supporters in hitting the phones, reportedly being joined in his office at one point by fellow Christians, who prayed for his success.

Senator Fifield changed moved to support Mr Morrison, rather than Mr Dutton, later telling a colleague he’d made a terrible mistake.

By the Friday morning of the final spill Mr Dutton was stuck at 38 signatures, at which point Mr Pyne, and Mr Robert and Mr Hawke, on behalf of Mr Morrison, decided the leadership crisis needed to be resolved with a spill and contacted five MPs, who signed the petition.

As Speers writes, Mr Morrison may have had plausible deniability, “but it was his lieutenants, together with Pyne, who forced the issue to a head on that final day, based on a judgment the party could not limp on in a state of chaos under Turnbull.”

Mr Abbott has a more cynical view of Mr Morrison’s tactics, telling Speers: “Morrison parlayed his half a dozen votes into the prime ministership, manoeuvring to bring on a spill and then harvest Turnbull votes to get the top job”.

The spill motion was ultimately carried, 45 votes to 40, and Mr Morrison beat Mr Dutton to secure the top job.