Northcote by-election: Greens snatch seat from Labor in shock win

In a daunting outcome for the ALP, which spent heavily, it has lost the Northcote by-election to the Greens.

Victorian Greens candidate Lidia Thorpe, celebrates with supporters.

Victorian Labor last night conceded defeat in the Northcote by-election, losing a seat it has held since 1927 to the Greens.

Federal Greens leader Richard Di Natale this morning lauded his party’s stunning victory in the state seat, after a more than 10 per cent swing against the ALP.

“What you have got is people in Northcote who have said ‘we have had enough of the two old parties, we don’t like the fact they are two parties who are being bought by big business ... we support a party that stands strongly with the community’,” Senator Di Natale told ABC radio.

Greens candidate for Northcote Lidia Thorpe will be the first indigenous woman in Victoria’s parliament.

“We said we’d make history, and we did,” Ms Thorpe told jubilant supporters last night.

“To be the first Aboriginal woman in the Victorian parliament ... I feel so privileged and honoured to have made that, made that history. For a kid that grew up in public housing, and a kid that has survived family violence, anything is possible.”

With almost 80 per cent of the votes counted, Ms Thorpe has 45 per cent of the primary vote, and a 56-44 two-party preferred lead over Labor candidate Clare Burns.

Labor Premier Daniel Andrews told a campaign gathering last night the party “will not win Northcote tonight” following a steep swing to the Greens.

Today senior federal Labor frontbencher Andrew Leigh wished the Greens were focused on attacking conservatives rather than tearing down progressive parties like Labor.

“So much of the Greens’ energy seems to be going into the fights on the left,” Dr Leigh told ABC television.

“I wish the Greens could actually focus on the main game, as Labor, a serious party of government, does.”

Federal Resources Minister and Queensland LNP senator Matt Canavan conceded the Northcote outcome could result in the Greens picking up two Brisbane seats in the state election.

“That raises the spectre of a Greens/Labor coalition in the Queensland parliament,” he told Sky News.

He said that is not something Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has ruled out even though she has talked a lot about rejecting One Nation. “That would be an absolute nightmare for Queensland. The Greens want to stop jobs all over the state,” Senator Canavan said.

Congratulations to Lidia Thorpe and the amazing Vic Greens members who have just seen us secure an historic victory in the seat of Northcote! So fantastic! Welcome Lidia and bring on the 2018 election!

— Richard Di Natale (@RichardDiNatale) November 18, 2017

Ms Thorpe, a prominent indigenous advocate who owns a social housing and energy business servicing indigenous communities, appears to have benefited from demographic changes in the inner-Melbourne electorate, including an increase in young, socially active voters. She is also expected to have been helped by a preference deal with a prominent former mayor, Vince Fontana.

“This will send a strong message to every kid out there who’s dreaming big, that anything is possible,” Ms Thorpe said.

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews with a Labor volunteer from the Northcote campaign.

A resolute Mr Andrews congratulated Ms Thorpe on her victory, while declaring that the residents of Northcote had given her “an immense gift”. The seat was held by Labor veteran and women’s rights advocate Fiona Richardson since 2006 until her tragic death in August from cancer.

Labor appointed Ms Burns, a Trades Hall organiser and speech pathologist, to run for the high-profile seat and until tonight, her chances were considered good.

Ms Burns said the defeat shouldn’t be taken as an indicator of how the party will fare in the 2018 state election.

“We’ll be back,” she said on Saturday night. “Labor will be back in Northcote, make no mistake.”

Labor had been tipped in three early polls to win the electorate on a slim margin, but counting on Saturday revealed steep swings to the Greens in primary counts and in preferences from independent Mr Fontana.

An exhausting day on the hustings ended in heavy rain, the downpour and flooding in the streets putting a dampener on the final two hours of polling.

Labor has held the inner city electorate since 1927, but has battled a steadily declining primary vote for more than a decade in the suburb regarded as the city’s “Latte Line”, where inner-city progressive meet the conservative suburbs.

It’s a daunting outcome for the party, which spent more than $500,000 and put every scrap of party resources into the campaign, focusing on housing affordability, rental reform and beefing up school funding.

Northcote is one of three seats under threat from the Greens in inner Melbourne, including Brunswick, Richmond and Melbourne, which fell to Greens MP Ellen Sandell in the 2014 election.

Of the three Labor-Greens marginal seats, Northcote had been regarded as the safest, with the Labor’s primary vote in the 2014 election still coming in higher than 40 per cent.

Labor candidate Clare Burns at a polling station.

Three polls conducted throughout the campaign put Labor ahead by a slim lead, with the most recent poll indicating Labor could score a primary vote of 39 per cent.

Mr Andrews told reporters during the day yesterday he felt confident about the outcome but declined to comment on reports the ALP had won preferences from the Animal Justice Party in exchange for donating more than $500,000 to the micro-party’s causes.

Strategists inside the party initially said they had taken comfort in the polling “trend” which indicated the party could win.

Senator Di Natale told reporters yesterday he had been proud of Ms Thorpe’s campaign.

“Whether it turns Green today or whether it turns Green at the next state election will be a question for the voters to decide,” Mr Di Natale said.

“But make no mistake, Northcote will be a Greens seat, Batman will be a Greens seat, Melbourne Ports will be a Greens seat and, of course, state seats like Richmond and Brunswick are all potential gains for the Greens.”

Greens' Northcote candidate Lidia Thorpe with Victorian senator Richard Di Natale.

Ms Thorpe campaigned hard on presenting an alternative voice in Victorian parliament, arguing that constituents need the Greens to hold major parties to account.

She has accused the Labor opposition of dirty tricks throughout the campaign, arguing it was Labor that shopped information on her as a former bankrupt to media outlets, before circulating a video of her telling a Northcote Forum that housing affordability was more of a federal issue.

The Greens are understood to have spent less than $200,000 on the campaign, compared to more than $500,000 splashed out by Labor.

More controversial however is a reported $500,000 that Labor has pledged to the Animal Justice Party in a bid to secure preferences from AJP candidate Nina Lenk.

Ms Lenk confirmed to Fairfax reports the ALP had promised to give about $500,000 to animal organisations and community organisations.

Labor had secured preference flows from the AJP and the Reason Party.

Additional reporting: AAP

Ms Thorpe hands out how-to-vote cards before the heavens opened.