Newspoll: Labor leader under pump as PM extends lead

Malcolm Turnbull has opened up the largest margin over Bill Shorten in more than two years.

Malcolm Turnbull increased his rating as preferred PM by two points. Picture: AAP

Bill Shorten’s leadership is poised to come under renewed internal pressure, with Malcolm Turnbull opening up the largest margin over his political rival in more than two years as both leaders prepare for a critical test in next week’s by-elections.

A Newspoll conducted exclusively for The Australian shows Mr Turnbull has extended his lead over the Labor leader by four points, blowing out the margin to 19 points.

The last time the Prime Minister held a lead of this magnitude was two months before the 2016 election.

With the slide in Mr Shorten’s approval ratings, the Coalition has held its ground but still trails on a small and unchanged two-party margin of 51-49.

The poll marks a 36-poll losing streak for the Coalition under Mr Turnbull’s leadership and comes on the back of a fortnight that has seen the government tread dangerous political ground with the release of controversial changes to the GST carve-up for the states and territories.

The ACCC also last week released its report into energy pricing that called for the wholesale reform of the national electricity market.

Neither issue, however, has resulted in any erosion of the Prime Minister’s dominance as preferred prime minister, with the Liberal leader lifting two points to 48 per cent.

Mr Shorten, whose leadership was already under pressure following a major gaff on tax policy, has on the other hand dropped two points to 29 per cent.

This marks the biggest gulf between the two since May 5, 2016, with the risk that it will add to internal pressure on Mr Shorten.

However, the lift for Mr Turnbull shadows the fact that both leaders remain unpopular.

Mr Shorten has a net negative satisfaction rating of minus 24, a slight improvement, while Mr Turnbull is also in deficit with a net satisfaction rating of minus eight, having dropped a further two points.

Almost a quarter, 23 per cent, have yet to pass judgment on who they would prefer to lead the ­nation.

With both leaders preparing to face off in the July 28 by-elections of Longman in Queensland and Braddon in Tasmania — two of the most marginal Labor-held seats in the country — the ­Coalition and Labor continue to suffer weak popular support.

The latest results show Labor shedding another point from its primary vote to 36 per cent, which was already a point down on the previous poll, while the Coalition has dropped back a point from a high of 39 per cent.

Labor’s primary vote sits below that recorded by the Gillard government in the 2010 election when it could form government only with the support of two independents.

The Coalition’s primary vote remains at record lows and below that of any Coalition government in the past three decades.

The one-point loss for the ­Coalition in the latest poll appears to have been directly transferred to One Nation, which lifted to 7 per cent.-

It was the same story for Labor, which saw left-wing voters go back to the Greens, who rose a point back up to their medium-term trend of 10 per cent.

The combined vote of the conservative parties — the Coalition and One Nation — was 45 per cent, while Labor and the Greens between them accounted for 46 per cent.

The latest Newspoll conducted between July 12-15 surveyed 1644 voters nationally in city and country areas with a margin of error of 2.4 per cent.

A reanalysis of Newspoll published last week confirmed that the Coalition had recorded its best quarterly two-party-preferred ­result since December 2016, trailing Labor on an average two-party-preferred vote of 52-48.

It had stayed at 53-47 last year.

However, in Queensland it continued to struggle with a primary vote of 36 per cent, which was seven points down on the 2016 election result. Mr Shorten is least popular in Queensland, according to the analysis.