Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull, Coalition lose lead to Labor

Bill Shorten plays down expectations after Newspoll reveals the Coalition has lost its lead over Labor.

Bill Shorten has vowed not to become “too excited” about his opposition pulling ahead of the Coalition in today’s Newspoll, observing that “pride comes before a fall”.

The Coalition has surrendered its lead to Labor for the first time since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister, with the latest Newspoll revealing the Bill Shorten-led opposition has pulled ahead, 51 per cent to 49 per cent, in two-party terms.

Amid mixed messages about the government’s tax policy and tensions between the Prime Minister and Treasurer Scott Mor­rison, support for the Coalition has tumbled to a six-month low as Mr Turnbull’s own standing ­continues to slide just 88 days out from a possible double-dissolution election.

Mr Shorten, asked about the Newspoll, said: “These polls remind me that pride comes before a fall, so I am not about to get too excited about these polls. I’m not about to get sidetracked from the issues that matter to Australians.

“In terms of the personal numbers … what I am going to do is keep working on the policies. I think what we are seeing in 2016 is the hard work of my united Labor team over the last two years is now bearing some fruit.

“We have fully funded and costed policies, fairness in taxation, making sure that we support our hospital system, making sure we support our school system, making sure that middle-class and working-class kids don’t face a lifetime of debt if they want to go to university.”

Mr Turnbull, who famously cited the government’s poor standing in Newspoll as a reason for deposing Tony Abbott as prime minister, refused to comment this morning on the poll.

“Thank you for inviting me to be a commentator. It’s a line of work I used to do (as a journalist) in my youth, but I’m not doing it any longer,” he said, declining repeated requests to comment.

However, Liberal minister Scott Ryan said the Newspoll should remind Coalition MPs to “constantly improve” their communication with the public. “If there’s a message in them, I suppose, it’s that we need to constantly improve our efforts to explain how these big issues — the deficit that Labor’s left, Labor’s threat to increase it further, Labor’s threat to increase taxes — how they relate to people’s day-to-day concerns about jobs for them and their children, and the cost of living. And so it may well serve as a reminder of that,” Senator Ryan, the Minister for Vocational Education and Skills, told Sky News.

Jeff Kennett, the Victorian Liberal premier between 1992 and 1999, said the Newspoll was a “wakeup call” to the government, saying Mr Turnbull’s “first six months have been terribly wasted”.

“You can’t put up a proposal to the states two days before they meet and expect the states to have sufficient information to make judgment on it. But more importantly, as a leader, you don’t want to float ideas that have the potential of exploding in your face and that’s exactly what happened,” he told Sydney’s 2UE.

“It’s now up to the Prime Minister to understand he leads a team — he’s not an individual — he’s got to meld that team into a strike force and he’s got to develop the narrative now to build on the theme that we as Australians have got to live within our means.”

Labor frontbencher Matt Thistlethwaite said the Australian public were “clearly disappointed” with Mr Turnbull. “He came to the prime ministership with such promise but he’s delivered nothing. The Australian people wanted a thoroughbred and what they’ve got is a show pony,” Mr Thistlethwaite, the opposition parliamentary secretary for foreign affairs and immigration, said.

“It’s also heartening to see that the Australian people value good policy development and, for the last two years that’s what Labor has been focused on.”

Labor edges ahead

The Newspoll, taken from Thursday to Sunday exclusively for The Australian, reveals the government’s primary vote has fallen to 41 per cent. It is down two points in the past fortnight and has dropped five points since the start of the year.

It comes as new polling reveals that voters strongly oppose giving states the power to levy their own income taxes. The Prime Minister’s “big idea” to give the states ­income tax powers was comprehensively rejected by the states at Friday’s Council of Australian Governments meeting.

Newspoll found the idea deeply unpopular among voters, with only 19 per cent in favour of ­enabling states and territories to levy income taxes, 58 per cent ­opposed and 23 per cent undecided. Only 27 per cent of ­Coalition voters back the idea, which was branded as “double taxation” by Mr Shorten.

The Turnbull government yesterday toughened its stance on state spending, telling premiers to lift their game on billions of dollars in road and rail projects by spending their money more wisely.

The poll of 1743 people shows Labor’s primary vote has climbed two points to a six-month high of 36 per cent while the Greens are down one point to 11 per cent. Support for other parties and independents rose one point to 12 per cent. Based on preference flows from the 2013 election, Labor leads in two-party-preferred terms by 51 per cent to the Coalition’s 49 per cent — a reversal of the poll a fortnight ago.

It is the first time the opposition has been ahead since Tony Abbott was deposed as prime minister 204 days ago and a dramatic shift from just 10 weeks ago when the ­Coalition started the political year leading Labor by 53 per cent to 47 per cent.

If this result was repeated on election day, with a uniform swing of 4.5 per cent, the Coalition could be defeated in 23 seats and would lose the election after just one term in power. Mr Turnbull has earmarked July 2 for an election if the Senate does not pass industrial ­relations bills when it is reconvened in two weeks.

When Mr Turnbull launched his challenge last September he cited as one factor that Labor had led the government for 30 consecutive Newspoll surveys. His standing soared to the highest level for any prime minister in six years during his “honeymoon” but Mr Turnbull’s approval rating has fallen in the past 10 weeks.

In the latest survey voters continued to mark down Mr Turnbull’s performance, with his satisfaction rating dipping one point to 38 per cent — down 15 points this year. Dissatisfaction with Mr Turnbull’s performance rose four points to 48 per cent and has doubled since he became Prime Minister. His net satisfaction rating — which measures the difference between those who are satisfied and those who are dissatisfied with his performance — has fallen to minus 10 points. In February it was a positive 22 points and last November it was a remarkably positive 38 points.

Satisfaction with Mr Shorten’s performance rose four points to 32 per cent to be only six points shy of Mr Turnbull’s rating.

And while dissatisfaction with Mr Shorten also rose one point to 53 per cent, he is now only five points above Mr Turnbull on this measure.

Mr Shorten’s net satisfaction rating sits at minus 21 points.

Mr Turnbull remained the preferred prime minister but his lead over Mr Shorten has narrowed from 31 to 21 points. The latest Newspoll shows Mr Turnbull preferred by 48 per cent of voters, down four points in the fortnight and down 16 points since his peak in November.

Mr Shorten was considered the better prime minister by 27 per cent, up six points in the fortnight and almost double the nadir of 14 per cent he reached last year, which had been the equal lowest ever for an ALP leader.

As he campaigned in Perth yesterday, Mr Shorten said the government was dysfunctional and not focused on the needs of everyday Australians.

“Mr Turnbull was going to be the man who was going to elevate politics and take it to a better place. I knew my job might be harder if he did this but I welcomed nonetheless the prospects of a better level of political debate,” he said. “What we’ve seen is Mr Turnbull shrink into his job.”

Former minister and Abbott loyalist Kevin Andrews was forced to pledge his support for the Prime Minister after his local newspaper in Melbourne said that in the right circumstances he was “prepared’ to challenge Mr Turnbull.

Mr Andrews, who was dumped from cabinet by Mr Turnbull, said he had been taken out of context and was referring to 2009 when he did strike at Mr Turnbull and helped bring down his leadership.

Mr Turnbull spent yesterday in Sydney ahead of a cabinet ­meeting today at which the government will set key directions for the May 3 budget. Over the past month Mr Turnbull and Mr Morrison have contradicted each other over tax policy and the timing of the budget.