Newspoll: Hanson on the rise as Coalition support dives

The first Newspoll for 2017 is in and it contains little joy for Malcolm Turnbull or the Coalition.

The first Newspoll for 2017 reveals a record 29 per cent of people would not give their first preference vote in the House of Representatives to the Coalition or Labor.

The Coalition’s support has collapsed to the lowest level since Malcolm Turnbull toppled Tony Abbott as prime minister, with the government trailing Labor by 46 to 54 per cent in two-party terms as parliament resumes amid increasing voter disillusionment about the major parties.

The first Newspoll for the year, taken exclusively for The Australian, reveals a record 29 per cent of people would not give their first preference vote in the House of Representatives to the Coalition or Labor.

• NEWSPOLL: Hanson reaction

After revelations about the stunning phone call between Mr Turnbull and Donald Trump over refugees, a cabinet reshuffle forced by the resignation of Sussan Ley and an expenses scandal, complaints about changes to the pension and Centrelink debt recovery, and debate about the Prime Minister’s $1.75 million donation to the Liberal Party, the Coalition’s primary vote has tumbled four points over the summer holidays to 35 per cent.

It last dropped this low exactly two years ago when Mr Abbott faced the “empty chair” move to spill his leadership in the wake of his decision to give a knighthood to Prince Philip. When Mr Turnbull launched his challenge against Mr Abbott in September 2015 the Coalition’s primary vote was 39 per cent.

At 35 per cent, the government’s primary vote is down seven points since the July 2 election. It is also the first time since August 2015 that it has been lower than Labor’s primary vote.

But the Newspoll survey of 1734 people taken from last Thursday to yesterday shows there has been no gain for Labor or lift for Bill Shorten, with the ALP’s primary vote unchanged at 36 per cent since early ­December and a drop in personal support for the Labor leader.

The Greens are also unchanged at 10 per cent.

Support has surged for independents and minor parties from 15 to 19 per cent. Within this group Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has a national primary vote of 8 per cent, which is the same level of support it achieved at the 1998 federal election. Senator Hanson yesterday talked up her hopes of One Nation one day forming government.

National support for the Nick Xenophon Team is at 2 per cent, although it is about 20 per cent in South Australia.

Based on preference flows from the last election, Labor enjoys a massive two-party-preferred lead of 54 per cent to the Coalition’s 46 per cent. This is the seventh consecutive Newspoll where Labor has been in front and the worst result for the government under Mr Turnbull’s leadership.

Labor last held a lead this large in Newspoll on the weekend ­before Mr Turnbull launched his successful leadership challenge when he declared the need for “a different style of leadership” and said the party was unable to break the trajectory of losing 30 consecutive Newspoll surveys.

Newspoll shows some positive news for Mr Turnbull who has continued his dominance over Mr Shorten as better prime minister with his standing improving one point to 42 per cent as the opposition leader’s support fell two points to 30 per cent.

Mr Shorten has never been ahead of Mr Turnbull on this measure, but two years ago the Labor leader had an extraordinary lead over Mr Abbott of 48 to 30 per cent and in their final comparison ­before Mr Abbott was rolled, Mr Shorten led by 41 to 37 per cent.

However, today’s poll confirms the growing dissatisfaction with both leaders, with 28 per cent of voters saying they did not prefer either man as prime minister — the highest uncommitted level in 19 years. Last month The Australian revealed Mr Turnbull and Mr Shorten had been judged by voters as the least desirable pair of combatants vying for the leadership of the country in more than 20 years.

Mr Turnbull, who said he had fought for Australia’s interests and stood his ground against Mr Trump, saw his personal support inch up. Satisfaction with his performance rose one point to 33 per cent while dissatisfaction fell one point to 54 per cent. Mr Turnbull’s net satisfaction rating improved from minus 23 points before Christmas to minus 21 points. This time last year it was positive 22 points and had been as high as 38 points soon after he became Prime Minister.

Mr Shorten’s standing has ­deteriorated over the summer break, with satisfaction with his performance down two points to 32 per cent and dissatisfaction up three points to 54 per cent. His net satisfaction rating worsened from minus 17 points to minus 22 points, although this time last year his ranking was minus 35 points.

Mr Turnbull dodged a question by Laurie Oakes last night on the Nine Network’s 60 Minutes program about ­whether he was “in a hole politic­ally”. But when pressed whether he had done any self-examination or made mistakes the Prime Minister said: “We all reflect on what we do and how we can improve.”

He rejected the perception he was weak, saying he was “strong and forthright and determined” and said he was “focused on delivering for Australians and what I set out is our agenda for this year and what we’re going to deal with is ­energy prices”.

Mr Shorten heaped criticism on the government, calling it “hopelessly divided and dysfunctional” and led by a Prime Minister desperate to cling to his job.

“This has been the worst summer for a government in memory — even worse than when Tony Abbott knighted Prince Philip,” he said. “By contrast, Labor and I have been listening to Australians and outlining our plans to see more Australians get the skills they need for a good job. For Labor and for me, the No 1 priority is Australian jobs. Malcolm Turnbull’s only priority is his own job.”