Morrison puts election focus on creating 1.25m jobs

Scott Morrison kicks off the election year with a key speech today outlining a main plank in the Coalition’s campaign strategy.

The economy — and the Coalition’s economic record — are at the forefront of Scott Morrison’s re-election strategy. Picture: Jonathan Ng

Scott Morrison will go to the election vowing to create 1.25 million jobs over the next five years, doubling down on Tony Abbott’s 2013 pledge to create one million jobs, in a move that could sideline ­Coalition plans to slash the immigration intake.

The Prime Minister will reveal the commitment in a speech in Brisbane today, placing the economy — and the Coalition’s economic record — at the forefront of his re-election strategy.

Mr Morrison will hammer the importance of a strong economy to every aspect of Australian life, and urge against complacency after more than a quarter of a century of economic growth.

“At this next election, only half of those of voting age will have experienced a recession during their working lives,” he will say, according to an ­advance copy of his speech. “The strength of our ­economy determines our choices and ­opportunities. It underpins our quality of life, it enables our way of life.

“I do not want Australians to learn just how important a strong economy is to each of them by ­enduring the cruel lessons of a weaker economy under Bill Shorten and Labor.”

Mr Morrison will highlight ABS and welfare data showing employment of “prime age” Australians — those aged 25-54 — is now at a record 80 per cent, while welfare dependence is at its lowest level in 30 years. Female partici­pation in the jobs market is at rec­ord highs, exceeding 60 per cent.

 

The numbers suggest the government will have to continue to rely on a strong immigration ­intake to meet the jobs target, ­creating a potential conflict ­between the new policy and Mr Morrison’s plan to entrench a permanent immigration cut to 160,000 — about 30,000 lower than the annual 190,000 cap.

Mr Morrison, who will announce congestion-busting infrastructure spending during a three-day campaigning blitz in southeast Queensland, has been under pressure to address overcrowding in major cities by slowing immigration.

In a new economics bulletin out today, Deloitte Access Economics partner Chris Richardson warns that cutting immigration will disrupt the smooth operation of the labour market.

“Population and jobs are inextricably linked: you can’t mess with one without the risk you’ll muck up the other,” he said.

Mr Richardson told The Australian that the jobs boom of recent years had been “magnificent” but “it probably won’t be permanent”.

“There is a slow shift under way out of jobs growth and into wage growth,” he said. “Jobs growth peaked and wage growth troughed about two years ago.”

Mr Abbott went to the September 2013 election promising to create a million jobs over five years. The Coalition delivered on the commitment early, aided by strong net migration, reaching the target in May last year under Malcolm Turnbull.

“Labor said we would fail, but we nailed it — 1.1 million jobs within five years. And we are now past 1.2 million jobs,” Mr Morrison will say. “Today, I am making a new jobs pledge for our government, to see 1.25 million jobs created over the next five years. We are a jobs government.”

Mr Morrison will liken his government to that of John Howard, saying it is “delivering the same high-employment economy the Howard government delivered”.

He will highlight budget repair as a key achievement, along with lower taxes for small business, personal tax cuts, the maintenance of Australia’s triple-A credit rating and new international trade deals.

Creating 1.25 million extra jobs would require the generation of about 20,000 new positions a month over the five-year period.

This was achieved over the past five years because high immigration lifted annual growth in the working-age population to 1.7 per cent.

Productivity Commission figures show almost 95 per cent of migrants are of working age and about 60 per cent of them join the labour force — about the same as Australian-born adults.

Achieving the 1.25 million jobs target implies keeping growth in the working-age population at 1.7 per cent and increasing the share of the working-age population in work from an average 62.1 per cent last year to a record 63 per cent, at a time when baby-boomers are increasingly retiring.

Any cut to immigration and population growth would require a larger share of the adult population to join the workforce.

Labor will unveil a jobs package closer to the election, due in May. It has already announced plans to force businesses that win government contracts to support regional employment.