Morrison pilfers Labor votes on asylum-seekers

The PM’s overwhelming support as being best able to handle the asylum-seeker issue typifies the new problem for Bill Shorten.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison in question time yesterday. Picture: AAP

Scott Morrison’s overwhelming support as being best able to ­handle the issue of asylum-seekers typifies the new problem for Bill Shorten now that Malcolm Turnbull has gone.

The Prime Minister is solidly capturing the Coalition vote and appealing to a fair slice of Labor voters on key issues but the Opposition Leader’s support among ALP voters is divided and soft.

On the question of the handling of asylum-seekers in the latest Newspoll survey conducted exclusively for The Australian, 47 per cent of voters prefer Mr Morrison to Mr Shorten’s 27 per cent.

The Coalition advantage on this issue was virtually unchanged since the previous Newspoll in June — 47 per cent for Mr Turnbull and 30 per cent for Mr Shorten — and continued its long dominance after Tony Abbott vowed to “turn back the boats” and Mr Morrison and Peter Dutton as immigration and border protection minister ­delivered.

In the political party breakdown, 82 per cent of Coalition voters were supporting Mr Morrison as were 23 per cent — almost one in four — of Labor voters.

This underlines Labor’s great weakness in the polls despite such a clear lead for so long on a two-party-preferred basis in the Newspoll surveys — the primary vote is too low and the Opposition Leader does not command the same solid support among Labor voters as the new Prime Minister does with the Coalition voters.

 

This is not about Mr Shorten’s “unpopularity” and failure to be preferred prime minister over Mr Turnbull or Mr Morrison but about the strength of any shift among disenchanted Labor voters — who have deserted on the Right and Left — back to the ALP before the election.

There is no doubt Mr Shorten is benefiting from facing real competition from Mr Morrison and the danger of complacently letting Mr Turnbull lose the election has been replaced by a more positive, policy-focused and bipartisan ­approach from Mr Shorten.

Overall voter satisfaction with Mr Shorten in the latest Newspoll survey improved from 32 to 35 per cent and dissatisfaction fell three points to 51 per cent while he closed the gap on preferred prime minister to 11 percentage points.

.@australian’s Dennis Shanahan on federal election: The bottom line is that the government is facing a terrible defeat.

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— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) October 15, 2018

Support among Labor voters for Mr Shorten also improved on key issues such as handling the economy, national security and asylum-seekers.

Yet Labor’s primary vote, down a percentage point to 38 per cent, still suffers by losing previous ­supporters to the Left and the Right.

The Coalition’s primary vote has suffered equally in the past losing votes, particularly to conservative alternatives, but Mr Morrison is recovering ground and improving Coalition support in key areas and still appealing to a large share of Labor voters over Mr Shorten.

On the economy, one in five Labor voters prefers Mr Morrison to handle the economy over Mr Shorten; it’s almost one in four for asylum-seekers, and one in five on national security.

Mr Shorten’s declaration last week that Labor “won’t be a small target” at the next election and the production of big policies and tax decisions in the past two weeks show that he is reacting positively to the new threat of Mr Morrison but he has to lure more ALP voters away from Mr Morrison on key ­issues than he has so far.