Leader needs to land a blow

IF Julia Gillard's net satisfaction rating were not so low, Tony Abbott's poor ratings (-13) would be the focus of attention.

IF Julia Gillard's net satisfaction rating were not so catastrophically low, Tony Abbott's poor ratings (-13) would be the focus of attention.

Instead, we are bearing witness to a prime minister whose net satisfaction rating has fallen from +11 less than three months ago before she announced plans for a carbon tax, to a lowly -21 today.

Gillard is right to stay focused on the long term. She is right to continue to hold out hope that bedding down the carbon tax just might alleviate people's fears.

And she is right to tell her troops the Opposition Leader's negative campaigning will lose its voice once winding back compensation measures as the counter-measure to pricing carbon becomes part of his story.

In the meantime, Gillard needs to find ways of dispelling the accusations that she is a political dead woman walking. In the world of political analysis, perceptions have a way of morphing into reality.

The government's antics in the last week and a half have been a lesson in how not to stage-manage the political agenda. From a Malaysian solution that makes Labor's opposition to Nauru look ridiculous, to tough pre-budget talk that left most underwhelmed by the budget reality, to a population strategy 12 months in the offing that read as if it had been drafted the week it was released, Labor is acting like a government suffering from ADD.

Equally, Abbott used the two weeks before last to build a reputation around positive messaging on matters such as mental health and welfare reform. His net satisfaction rating rose considerably. Instead of driving that new subtlety home in his budget in reply, Abbott delivered a commentary on government shortfalls without spruiking how he would do things better. This Newspoll's net satisfaction rating fell accordingly.

The opposition has its problems, and a better government would take advantage of them. But the only issue anyone is talking about is how far Labor's stocks have fallen since it was elected 3 1/2 years ago.