Kerryn Phelps to trounce Liberals in Wentworth, party polling shows

Independent Kerryn Phelps is set for victory over the Morrison government in the Wentworth by-election, Lib polling shows.

Wentworth by-election candidates, Liberal Dave Sharma and independent Kerryn Phelps at Bondi Surf Club. Picture: Hollie Adams

Independent candidate Kerryn Phelps is set for victory over the Morrison government in the Wentworth by-election this Saturday, as Liberal Party polling shows the former Australian Medical Association president ahead of Liberal candidate Dave Sharma 55 per cent to 45 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.

The polling, leaked to The Australian, also shows 75 per cent of those in the seat believe the government will retain it.

“We are being killed by the expectation (we will win it),” one Liberal said last night.

Defeat in Wentworth would mean the Morrison government lost its one-seat majority and have to rely on the support of independents to govern.

When the Liberals polled the seat in Sydney’s eastern suburbs last week, Dr Phelps was a fraction of a percentage point ahead.

It is understood that the latest polling had Mr Sharma polling in the mid-30s on primary votes and Dr Phelps well into the 20s, clearly ahead of Labor. Dr Phelps must finish second to secure the seat as Labor is regarded as being unable to win due to the independent directing preferences to the Liberals ahead of Labor on her how-to-vote card.

Not helping Mr Sharma is the fact that former prime minister and previous member Malcolm Turnbull will not do a robocall or send a letter supporting Mr Sharma ahead of Saturday’s by-election.

 

Instead, Mr Turnbull’s former deputy Julie Bishop has been rolled out to give Mr Sharma support. In a robocall to residents of Wentworth, Ms Bishop said she worked with Mr Sharma when he was a diplomat and he would make a great MP. “I know some may have concerns about recent political events. I believe Dave Sharma will be part of the solution,” Ms Bishop says in the call.

“I’m supporting Dave Sharma as our candidate for the seat of Wentworth. When I was foreign minister, I got to know Dave Sharma well. He was a champion for Australia’s interests when he served overseas as a diplomat, ­including as our ambassador to ­Israel. Dave would bring a unique set of skills to the parliament and be a real asset.

“He knows how to bring people together and work in the interests of Australia. He will be a champion for the people of Wentworth, as he was a champion for the people of Australia.”

The NSW Liberal Party had been hopeful Mr Turnbull would help Mr Sharma at the end of his campaign in some way, but Liberal sources have confirmed the former prime minister intends to watch from New York while the by-election takes place without helping. The only intervention Mr Turnbull made was during the preselection where he urged Mr Sharma to stay the course even though Scott Morrison was backing Katherine O’Regan.

On September 13, Mr Turnbull tweeted: “Congratulations from Lucy and me to @DaveSharma — new Liberal candidate for Wentworth. As a diplomat, Dave has represented Australia magnificently overseas, and now if elected will make a great contribution in our national parliament.”

Mr Turnbull’s son, Alex, then posted a Facebook message urging against a Liberal vote in the seat. He urged voters to “send a signal about which way the Liberal Party is going and your displeasure at where it is going’’.

Dr Phelps, meanwhile, is being accused of having breached electoral laws in Wentworth because her social media accounts are not authorised and she has put up more than 500 posts.

From March 15, new authorisation requirements were introduced by the Australian Electoral Commission to cover a broad range of communication that includes an “electoral matter”.

In the case of social media, the specific requirements are that either each communication is to be authorised at the end of the communication, or for the social media account is to be authorised in the bio/about section of the account.

Since announcing her candidacy on September 16, Dr Phelps has posted, shared or retweeted from her accounts 92 times from Facebook, 474 times from Twitter and eight times from Instagram without the authorisation.

Her spokesman declined to comment on the matter yesterday.