Fertility rate to stay about 1.9 births per woman

AUSTRALIA’s fertility rate is expected to stay at 1.9 births per woman across the next 40 years.

AUSTRALIA’s fertility rate is expected to remain steady at 1.9 births per woman over the next 40 years, a rate that has hardly budged since the late 1970s.

The government’s 2015 Intergenerational Report shows Australia’s fertility rate is well above those of European countries but below comparable nations such as New Zealand and the US.

In 1961, the fertility rate was 3.5 births per woman before trailing down to about 1.9 births per woman in the late 70s.

The IGR confirms the mini-baby boom in the 2000s when there was a “short-term increase’’ in the fertility rate, with a particularly high number of births to women aged 30 to 39 years.

“The causes of this upswing in fertility are widely debated,’’ the report says. “A range of reasons has been put forward in this debate including favourable economic conditions, more flexible working arrangements and increased levels of government support, including the baby bonus and Family Tax Benefit.’’

During his press conference for the 2004 budget, then treasurer Peter Costello implored Australians to go home and do their patriotic duty and have “one for the country’’ to lift the fertility rate and help fix the ageing demographic.

The 2015 IGR, however, accepts the assumption Australia’s fertility rate will stay at 1.9 births per woman and forgoes suggesting policies that may encourage the rate to lift.

The report also confirms a proportion of women having their first child in their late 20s and 30s. The trend, seen since the 90s, influences the structure of population.

“Australia’s population, although ageing, is neither as aged nor ageing as fast as some other countries. Japan’s median age is almost 45 years and many European countries have a median age in the 40s,’’ the report says.

“By contrast Australia’s median age is 36.8. The proportion of the Australian population aged 65 years and over is smaller than many OECD countries, including Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom.

“On the other hand, Australia has a much larger proportion of its population aged 65 years and above than China, India and ­Indonesia.”