Migration surge risks support for welfare, study finds

A surge in migration from the Middle East is putting ‘democracy and social cohesion at risk’ in ­Europe, according to new research.

Middle Eastern asylum-seekers in the Greek port of Piraeus in 2016. Picture: AFP

A surge in migration from the Middle East is putting “democracy and social cohesion at risk” in ­Europe, according to new research that finds voters in 16 European countries are less likely to support a welfare state amid a rising number of foreigners.

“While increase in population diversity may have long-run benefits, in the short run immigration and diversity are perceived by many as a threat to social cohesion and put welfare systems and ­democracies at risk,” Harvard professor Alberto Alesina wrote.

The study, published by the US National Bureau of Economic Research, has emerged amid a political furore over whether the government should bring up to 1011 asylum-seekers, largely from the Middle East, to Australia for medical care.

“Taxpayers’ fear of having to pay for the benefits of poorer immigrants that are sometimes portrayed as free-riding on the welfare system”, and “concerns of tighter labour market competition”, were likely causes, wrote Professor Alesina and his French and German co-authors.

The foreign-born population of major European countries has more than doubled since 1980, including a 50 per cent rise since 2000, two-thirds of which comprised immigrants from the Middle East and North Africa. “Immigrants originating from the Middle East and North Africa generate a larger anti-redistribution effect (about three times more negative) relative to other types of immigrants,” the authors found.

The results, based on statistical analysis of 30 years of survey and census data across 140 regions of 16 European countries, were ­“almost entirely driven by centre-right respondents”. Support for far-right parties has surged in France, Austria, Germany and Italy. “We find no significant impact of immigration on leftists’ attitudes,” the study found.

Voters were also less disposed to support welfare policies when there were large numbers of ­migrants. The negative impact of immigration on locals’ attitudes to social security policies was strongest in countries with generous welfare systems and relatively high levels of residential segregation.

The analysis adds to evidence that suggests voters are more supportive of redistributing incomes through the tax and welfare system if the beneficiaries are members of their own ethnic group. “Beliefs about who is a worthy ­recipient of public generosity correlate with race, especially in the United States,” the study said.

About a quarter of Australians were born overseas, a higher share than in Europe.