Biggest cities off limits for some new migrants

The Morrison government will require thousands of migrants to settle outside Sydney and Melbourne for up to five years.

New Population and Urban ­Infrastructure Minister Alan Tudge will today flag key planks of the government’s soon-to-be-­released population policy. Picture: Kym Smith

The Morrison government will impose new visa conditions for thousands of migrants a year, ­requiring them to settle outside Sydney and Melbourne for up to five years, in a bid to address ­unplanned population growth that has outstripped forecasts in major capital cities by ­almost 100 per cent over the past decade.

The Coalition will also consider funding fast-rail projects to tackle urban congestion caused by the population growth.

New Population and Urban ­Infrastructure Minister Alan Tudge will today flag key planks of the government’s soon-to-be-­released population policy, ­including fundamental structural changes to federal and state ­government management of population distribution and infrastructure planning.

Mr Tudge will say that a population spike after 2007 eclipsed growth predicted in the 2002 ­Intergenerational Report, driven by a “turbo-charged” lift in the immigration intake and family reunion visas under the Rudd and Gillard governments.

The unplanned nature of this population growth had led to an infrastructure deficit and settlement imbalance that was costing the nation $25 billion year in lost economic activity because of capital city congestion. This would reach more than $40bn within 10 years, Mr Tudge will reveal.

While net migration now ­accounts for 60 per cent of population growth nationally, it ­accounts for 84 per cent of growth in Sydney, Mr Tudge will say in his speech to the Menzies Research Centre in Melbourne today. A total of 75 per cent of all ­population growth had occurred in Melbourne, Sydney and southeast Queensland, which had also experienced high internal ­migration.

 

In his speech, Mr Tudge will flag a new partnership between federal and state governments, possibly driven through the Council of Australian Governments process, in managing infrastructure and population.

The “mismatch” in the growth-to-spending ratio has resulted in an infrastructure shortfall that has not only failed to keep up with ­projections but is now critically below actual requirements.

Mr Tudge will say the rate of growth in the past 10 years has been rivalled only by a brief period in the 1920s and the post-World War II “populate or perish” boom in the 50s.

The past decade has ­returned to a situation where net ­migration outstrips natural increases.

The congestion crisis has been revealed in research from the ­Bureau of Transport, Infrastructure and Regional Economics. It shows peak-hour travel times in 2018 are 65 per cent longer than non-peak hour in Sydney, and 55 per cent longer in Melbourne.

Mr Tudge will say the pressing issue is the uneven distribution of population growth.

“Overall, the costs of congestion to the economy are already great, and rising steeply,” he will say. “This is a serious challenge for families and a serious economic challenge for the nation. There was insufficient infrastructure built in the early 2000s, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney, to cater for forecast growth, let alone the actual growth.”

Australian Bureau of Statistics data reveal that between 1982 and 2007, population growth had averaged 220,000 a year and consisted of about 120,000 from natural growth and 100,000 from net overseas migration.

Since 2007, Mr Tudge will say, it has risen to 375,000 a year on ­average with only a minor increase in natural growth to about 150,000 and 200,000 a year from net annual migration.

Since 2015, the annual intake has begun to fall. This year’s permanent visa total of 162,000 was the lowest since 2008 after a tightening of vetting under Home ­Affairs Minister Peter Dutton.

 

Confirming that a new visa condition would be placed on a cohort of skilled migrants to settle in regional areas for “several years”, Mr Tudge will indicate they will come from a pool of skilled migrants who are not tied to geographic areas such as those sponsored into work by companies and those granted family visas.

This accounts for about 45 per cent of the total intake.

The conditions of the visas would be enforced by placing ­penalties for “breaches” that apply to other visa classes. This could include revocation or affect the ability of a permanent resident to apply for citizenship.

“While the overall population of Australia has been growing at the rapid rate of 1.6 per cent per annum, our three large population centres have been some of the fastest-growing cities in the world,” Mr Tudge will say.

“Melbourne last year grew by 2.7 per cent, Sydney by 2.1 per cent and southeast Queensland by 2.3 per cent. We are working on measures to have more arrivals go to smaller states and regions and require them to be there for a few years. In that time, the evidence suggests, many will make it their home for the long term. This will require close co-­operation across different agencies, including regional develop­ment, to ensure we get the settings right so that those smaller states and regions can benefit economically from population growth.”

Mr Tudge will say the government is investigating faster rail links between big cities and surrounding ­regional centres. Three business cases are under way and will be finalised early next year. These include: Newcastle to Sydney; Sunshine Coast to Brisbane; and Shepparton to Melbourne.

“The main factor driving our growth has been net overseas migration, accounting for 60 per cent of population growth over the last decade, while the remaining growth has been due to natural increases,” Mr Tudge will say.

“Most notably, there was a step change increase in population growth from 2007 under the Rudd government, almost entirely driven by lifting the immigration rate. The growth rate for our nation (and particularly our big cities) was well above projections.”

Australia had been forecast to grow by about 2.5 million over the past 15 years but had swelled by five million.