If history is any guide, governments usually win the close ones

OF the 25 federal elections Australia has had since World War II the government of the day has won nine out of the 10 closest results.

Closest elections

OF the 25 federal elections Australia has had since World War II the government of the day has won nine out of the 10 closest results.

But eight of those 10 elections have been won by the Coalition. So which side of politics has history on its side at this poll?

Both major parties are claiming they are the underdogs: Labor because current polling shows it is in a spot of bother; the Coalition because of the mammoth task it faces trying to beat a first-term administration -- that hasn't happened since James Scullin's one-term Labor government lost in 1931.

The only one of the 10 closest elections won from opposition happened way back in 1949 when Robert Menzies' newly formed Liberal Party defeated Ben Chifley's Labor government.

Governments usually win the close ones, managing to do so on five occasions with less than 50 per cent of the two-party vote, most recently when John Howard won the 1998 election with just 49 per cent of the two-party vote.

That's because they have more resources at their disposal and more locally identifiable MPs able to hold on in key seats, even if there is a national mood trending against the government. On that measure Labor should just hold on if this election stays close.

Conservatives should not, however, consider that history is necessarily running against them. Of the 10 closest election results in the past 65 years, the Coalition has managed to win eight times, as mentioned, including the one time it was done from opposition.

It may be that the conservatives are better at campaigning than Labor. Or perhaps the way electorates are disbursed gives the Coalition a better chance of winning a majority of seats despite securing a smaller share of the two-party vote.

When elections are close the government of the day often gets the benefit of the doubt from voters. But history constantly gets rewritten, just as it did when Labor removed Kevin Rudd from the prime ministership on the eve of this election.