How Malcolm Turnbull risks losing grey army

The Coalition faces losing its advantage among older voters as analysis of the Longman poll shows a huge swing against it.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. Picture: AAP

The Coalition is at risk of losing its once-unshakeable advantage among older Australians amid signs they are rebuffing Malcolm Turnbull’s attempts to mobilise a grey army against Labor’s proposed “retiree tax” on self-funded seniors.

Analysis of Saturday’s Longman by-election results revealed that among polling booths on Bribie Island — a traditional conservative stronghold, where more than half of residents are over 60 — the Liberal Nationals endured an average primary swing of 10.9 per cent against their candidate.

This was higher than the 9.4 per cent swing recorded across the electorate more broadly, despite the concerted campaign to raise alarm over Labor’s plan to abolish cash refunds for shareholders’ unused dividend imputation credits.

Amid Coalition angst over Labor’s final-week advertising blitz that blanketed Brisbane’s airwaves with negative TV and radio ads, the published results from pre-polling stations suggest many voters had already decided to spurn LNP candidate Trevor Ruthenberg.

The Australian’s analysis also reveals a stronger-than-average backlash in booths near the three Catholic schools that wrote to parents in the final days of the campaign, critiquing the Coalition’s approach to school funding. The letters, delivered to the parents of more than 2000 students, indicated Labor had committed an extra $250 million to Catholic schools while the Coalition’s proposed funding increases would not match the schools’ rising costs.

Brisbane Catholic Education’s spokesman, John Phelan, stressed the letters outlined the parties’ positions only and “did not advocate that parents should vote for, or support, one political party — or candidate — over another”.

The booths that locked in Longman for Labor.

“Appropriate federal funding is essential to allow a Catholic ­education to be accessible and ­affordable for all families who choose to send their children to a Catholic school,” he said.

The booths that locked in Longman for Labor.

The Coalition’s pitch to older voters focused on the ALP plan to abolish cash refunds for shareholders’ unused dividend tax credits, which the Prime Minister called a “tax grab” that would “fleece” seniors of up to 30 per cent of their income. Labor argued the cost of providing tax refunds to people who paid little or no tax was “blowing out” and had to be reined in to protect the budget and enable more spending on essential services.

The Coalition has long depended on seniors’ support at the ballot box, including in Longman, which has been held by Liberals for all but five of its 22 years. Bribie Island voters backed the Coalition even during Kevin Rudd’s 2007 victory that ushered in Longman’s first ever Labor member.

Bribie Island business owner Andrew Dunning, left, switched from the LNP to One Nation, Sandstone Point retiree John Donaldson stuck with the LNP.

Seniors will be crucial to holding other grey seats around the country such as Gilmore, on NSW’s south coast, which is held by Liberal MP Ann Sudmalis by a margin of only 0.7 per cent.

Bribie Island resident Andrew Dunning switched from the LNP to One Nation, “disillusioned” with the “false promises” of the major parties. “Pauline Hanson doesn’t win a lot of popularity contests, but what she is saying is what people are saying around here,” the 45-year-old business owner said. “Lowering power prices is an issue that is important to me and the cost of power prices have ended up being a vote winner for me.”

Sandstone Point retiree John Donaldson, a former accountant, decided against switching his vote from the LNP after weighing up the parties’ policies. “Of course, dividend reform is affecting my vote, and superannuation,” Mr Donaldson, 82, said. “We’ve all got super. Labor’s policies would be disastrous — economically disastrous.”

LNP president Gary Spence said the party would take stock of the lessons from the by-election and “work day and night to the next election”.