Greens lose out to ALP on voters over climate and boats

The Greens face a backlash as voters concerned about climate change and asylum-seekers refuse to shift their support to them.

Greens leader Richard Di Natale, right, with MP Adam Bandt. Picture: Aaron Francis

The Greens face an electoral backlash as voters concerned about climate change and asylum-seekers — and enticed by Bill Shorten’s softer policy agenda — refuse to shift their support to a minor party beset by dysfunctional campaigning and infighting.

Private polling from the major parties shows the Greens’ national vote remains below its 2016 federal election result of 10.2 per cent, despite the anti-Coalition sentiment that has helped bolster the overall Left vote in this parliamentary term.

The Australian understands that Labor and the Coalition believe the Greens under leader Richard Di Natale are heading for what could be their worst election result in many years.

Internal party polling has reinforced the Greens’ tepid Newspoll numbers for the past two years. Senior strategists are intrigued that the low Coalition vote has not translated to a sizeable number of inner-city Liberals — and some Labor supporters — parking their vote with the Greens. At issue is why the Greens cannot attract more disaffected voters, particularly the wealthy who are influenced by social issues such as climate change and asylum-seekers.

The Coalition primary vote is down more than five points since the last election and Labor is up more than four points, according to the most recent Newspoll, taken before the medivac legislation passed parliament. While One Nation has climbed almost four points, the Greens are down 1.2 points.

 

Despite the Coalition’s poll woes, sources said the Greens would have little chance of winning the Melbourne Liberal-held seats of Higgins or Kooyong. Liberals expect their biggest threat to come from the Labor Party and could see the loss of five Victorian seats. The Greens had previously been seen as a threat in both ­Higgins and Kooyong.

The Liberal Party also believes the Greens’ only federal seat, Melbourne, could fall to Labor, but the ALP believes Adam Bandt is too entrenched in the seat.

“But it’s not looking at all good for the Greens; their vote has gone backwards,” a senior Labor strategist said.

Grahame Morris, a former senior adviser to prime minister John Howard, said it appeared the Greens were being squeezed out of the contest as progressive voters decided it wasn’t time for a protest vote. Instead, many voters would be weighing up whether to elect a new Labor government or stick with the Coalition, he added.

Mr Morris said independents and “tiny parties” were attracting voter interest but at the same time there was less enthusiasm for the Greens. “The Greens have just been squeezed in the middle,” he said. “In an election which will genuinely decide whether or not there’s a change of government, it’s not unusual for a third-ranking party to be squeezed out.”

Labor’s softer agenda on the medivac laws and its attacks on negative gearing are seen as prime Greens policies, potentially wedging the minor party.

Since 2016, when the Greens secured 10.2 per cent of the national vote, Newspoll has consistently recorded the minor party at between 9 per cent and 10 per cent. For the past six Newspoll surveys, the Greens have been stuck on 9 per cent. Some Labor figures believe this overstates support for the minor party, which suffered a heavy loss a year ago at the Batman by-election in Melbourne, failed to have a major impact in the Wentworth by-election and was routed in the upper house at the Victorian election in November.

The Greens’ Victorian campaign was a train wreck as Labor exploited its bad candidate selection process. One would-be MP withdrew after being accused of serious sexual misconduct, another had rap lyrics about drug use and date rape and a third quit over inappropriate social media posts.

Paul Strangio, an associate professor of politics at Monash University, said the drift away from the Greens nationally could be an extension of the party’s soft vote at the Victorian election.

Across all parliaments, the party peaked at 36 seats in 2017 under Richard Di Natale but is down to 32 seats after the Victorian election.