Greens looming as Victorian kingmakers

ONE in five Victorian voters is intending to back the Greens at next month's state election, leaving Labor at risk of losing its majority.

Barrister Brian Walters, the Greens candidate for the seat of Melbourne, in the city yesterday. Picture: David Geraghty

ONE in five Victorian voters is intending to back the Greens at next month's state election, leaving Labor at risk of losing its majority.

Just days before the formal start of the campaign for the November 27 election, the latest Newspoll figures suggest an extremely tight result in keeping with this year's federal election and Tasmanian and South Australian polls. Primary support for the Brumby government has dropped to 35 per cent; the Coalition's primary vote has jumped four points to 40 per cent; and, most significantly, the Greens vote has surged to a record 19 per cent.

The polling, conducted exclusively for The Australian last month and this, shows that if an election were held today, Labor would narrowly retain power, with a two-party-preferred split of 52-48 in its favour. However, this relies on Greens preferencing Labor as they did at the 2006 election and no preference deals have yet been announced.

The Greens stand a good chance of winning up to four lower house seats in Melbourne's traditionally Labor-friendly inner city. Yet any victory is dependant on Liberal preferences, and there is increasing pressure from within that party not to do this after it delivered Greens MP Adam Bandt to federal parliament.

John Howard was the latest Liberal to weigh into the debate, yesterday cautioning his party about preferencing the Greens in Victoria.

"I think my side of politics has got to be very careful about giving preferences to the Greens," the former prime minister said. "In my view, the Greens are worse than the Labor Party - much worse."

The Greens candidate most likely to win a seat is barrister Brian Walters, who needs a swing of 2 per cent to remove Education Minister Bronwyn Pike from her seat of Melbourne.

Mr Walters said there was a "tiredness" about the major parties, and Labor was under threat of losing seats it had held for more than 100 years. "The old tribalism meant if you lived in Collingwood, you barracked for the Magpies and voted Labor," he said. "That is all gone."

Ms Pike, who entered parliament in 1999, the year Labor was swept to power in a bush revolt against Jeff Kennett's government, is urging voters to guard against an "unholy alliance" between the Coalition and Greens, who are yet to declare how they will direct preferences.

"It is easy for the Greens to talk about all sorts of aspirations and all sorts of visions and criticise decisions that have been made, but none of their ideas can translate into actual practical solutions," she told The Australian.

The previous poll, completed just after Julia Gillard toppled Kevin Rudd to become Prime Minister, showed the Brumby government holding a comfortable, 55-45 two-party-preferred lead - largely unchanged from the 2006 election result.

Labor and Liberal insiders now believe the July-August survey was skewed by goodwill towards Ms Gillard in her home state.

This latest survey is in line with most Newspoll results this year, marking a steady decline in Labor's popularity and rising support for the Coalition and Greens.

The growing Greens vote - it has almost doubled since the 2006 election - means the party has a real shot at seizing the seats of Richmond, held by Housing Minister Richard Wynne, Melbourne, Brunswick and Northcote.

Two of these seats overlap with the federal electorate won by Mr Bandt. Labor is also increasingly worried about the threat of the Greens in the seats of Prahran, Footscray and Albert Park.

The Coalition needs to win 13 seats outright to govern, but the potential for a hung parliament increases if the Greens are successful in winning lower house seats.

Newspoll boss Martin O'Shannessy said the recent federal election showed Greens support held up at the ballot box.

"They are going to be the big interest factor in this election," Mr O'Shannessy said. "With this kind of primary vote, especially in same inner-city areas that saw Adam Bandt win federally, the question to be asked is: will we see some Green MPs in the lower house this time around?"

The Newspoll also showed support for Mr Brumby had dropped, with his satisfaction rating falling from 48 per cent to 45 per cent.