White paper: China’s rise puts focus on security

China is expanding its influence in the region to pursue its own interests, a white paper warns.

Foreign Minister Julie Bishop. Picture: Ross Swanborough

Australia will shoulder greater ­responsibility for security and economic stability in an increasingly volatile Indo-Pacific region, as a balance to China’s rising power and growing uncertainty in the US about the cost and value of its international leadership, ­accor­ding to the first review of the nation’s foreign policy settings in 14 years.

The 2017 foreign policy white paper to be released today by ­Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop makes explicit references to China’s pursuit of influence to suit “its own interests”, while warning the region is engaged in an open contest for the principles and values on which order will be based.

Reasserting US predominance into the near future and a deepening of the US-Australia ­alliance, the white paper suggests Australia will expand strategic ­relationships beyond the US to “like-minded” democracies in the region, while adopting greater ­defence self-reliance and an ­expanded soft-power footprint.

Giving official recognition for the first time to the geopolitical sphere of the Indo-Pacific, it warns Australia faces a region that will undergo profound change over the next decade, with shifting power balances and an ­increasing level of uncertainty and risk. Economic power and trade protectionism are also emerging as strategic threats that could ­promote new rivalries and elevate existing ones.

Significantly, the white paper implies a greater toll for Australia in maintaining freedom of navigation, with maritime disputes “continuing to create friction”.

The foreign policy agenda, which seeks to project into the ­region an Australian model of ­liberalism, comes a month after Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ­address to the Communist Party congress in which he promoted China’s system of “socialism with Chinese characteristics” as a template for developing countries.

It will for the first time establish a set of guiding principles for foreign policy based around rules based on international order, open markets and universal rights and freedoms.

In a move likely to incite objections from Beijing, the white paper emphasises partnerships with other democracies in the ­region, elevating India — and the quadrilateral security dialogue involving Australia, the US, Japan and India — as being fundamental to Australia’s economic and ­security interests.

“The government is committed to strong and constructive ties with China,” it says. “We welcome China’s greater capacity to share responsibility for supporting ­regional and global security. To support a balance in the Indo-­Pacific favourable to our interests and promote an open, ­inclusive and rules-based region, Australia will also work more closely with the region’s major democracies, bilaterally and in small groupings. In addition to the ­United States, our relations with Japan, Indonesia, India and the Republic of Korea are central to this agenda.

“As competition for influence in the region grows, the government will increase Australia’s ­efforts to ensure we are a leading security, economic and development partner for Southeast Asia.”

The document is regarded as providing a foreign policy/­defence framework, following last year’s defence white paper. It claims that the increase in annual defence spending to 2 per cent of GDP secured by the Abbott government — lifting defence spending to $35 billion this year and almost $60bn in 2026 — is pivotal to maintaining Australia’s ability to shape and influence US policy in the region, in light of Washington’s demands that its allies pull their weight.

“Like all great powers, China will seek to influence the region to suit its own interests,” the white paper says. “As it does, a number of factors suggest we will face an ­increasingly complex and contested Indo-Pacific. Even as China’s power grows and it competes more directly with the United States ­regionally and globally, the United States will, for the foreseeable ­future, retain its significant global lead in military and soft power.

“The United States remains the most powerful country but its long dominance of the international order is being challenged by other powers. A post-Cold War lull in major power rivalry has ended. These trends are converging to create an uncertain outlook for Australia.”

The white paper says that in parts of the Indo-Pacific, including in Southeast Asia, China’s power and influence will grow to match, “and in some cases exceed”, that of the US. “The future balance of power in the Indo-Pacific will largely depend on the actions of the United States, China and major powers such as Japan and India,” it says.

The Foreign Minister said the white paper was the most significant foreign policy document in 15 years and set the tone for a ­defence/foreign policy framework for the next decade. “It is the first comprehensive strategy ever focused on the Indo-Pacific,” Ms Bishop told The ­Australian. “Global order will flow from power and US hard power will remain an essential underpinning of rule-based order. We have to stick with the US and play a long game.”

Ms Bishop accepted that China could take exception to elements of the document.

“They might see concerns with our emphasis on working with like-minded democracies but we are certainly most keen to expand our relationships beyond the US and our traditional allies,” the ­Foreign Minister said.

“We have portrayed China in a realistic and positive light … we certainly recognise China’s growing influence. We are defending a principle … and that is inter­national rules-based order.”

Ms Bishop said the white paper supported a policy of encouraging China to use its power as a stabilising force in the region through the same rules-based order that enabled its rise.

The white paper forecasts China’s GDP to jump from $21.4 trillion to $42.4 trillion in 2030, surging ahead of the US, which will grow from $18.6 trillion to $24 trillion. India is also forecast to register major GDP growth, ­expanding from $8.7 trillion to $20.9 trillion.

The white paper suggests Australia’s influence and international standing is based largely on its economic success. For Australia to continue to play a strategic role in the region will depend on maintaining economic power to buffet volatility and anti-globalisation sentiment.

The document cites terrorism, rapid technological change, state fragility and climate change as also presenting major challenges for Australia’s foreign policy settings.