APEC: leaders talk in Donald Trump shadow

Malcolm Turnbull and Barack Obama will hold a final and pivotal meeting as a cloud hangs over the ANZUS alliance.

Malcolm Turnbull meets Barack Obama in Lima yesterday.

Malcolm Turnbull and Barack Obama will hold a final and ­pivotal meeting today as a cloud hangs over the economic and strategic future of Australia’s most enduring and strongest ­alliance.

The Australian has been told that the two leaders will have an exceptionally “lengthy” meeting on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in Peru to map a way forward on critical issues such as the US ­commitment to the Asia-Pacific region, China’s economic and strategic ambitions in the region and Australia’s military commitments to conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.

“It is not the usual sideline meeting you would expect from a summit like this,” a government source said. “It will be quite a substantial talk.”

The meeting reflects growing concern about the regional strategic situation and uncertainty linked to critical issues under a Donald Trump administration that extend to matters such as the already stalled US troop rotations through Darwin to the increasing threat posed by North Korea.

With the election of Mr Trump overshadowing discussions of the two-day summit of 21 Asia-Pacific leaders, the challenge of balancing Australia’s trade relationship with China with the strategic and ­security relationship with the US will dominate discussions with Mr Obama. Of immediate concern will be the ambiguity over the US pivot to Asia, driven largely by Mr Obama, and potential defence self-reliance in the region as China seeks to ­assert its territorial claims in the South China Sea. Government sources said ambiguity now cast a pall over Australia’s trade relationship with China and the strategic alliance with the US. At the heart of that was the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which demonstrated not only an economic commitment to the region but a statement of soft power to counter Chinese ambitions.

Mr Turnbull yesterday told The Australian that the pessimistic outlook for realisation of the $27 trillion TPP would be a key focus of the discussions for both its economic and trade consequences but also the US strategic commitment to the region.

The two leaders met briefly yesterday at the head of a business summit where the issue of free-trade dominated. “We talked today about the TPP; I’m sure we will be talking about it tomorrow — and the future of trade,” he said. “The point the President made … is that our countries have a vested interest in free trade.”

In a sign of the anxiety in Washington, Mr Obama urged Mr Turnbull to keep pushing Australia’s case. “The point that the President made is that this is a long game, he reminded us that when he was running for president ... he was very sceptical about free-trade agreements that he supported as President.”

Today’s meeting is being viewed as a “stocktake” of the ­alliance and the achievements and failures in the path set under the Obama administration for greater US engagement in not only our region but other regions of conflict. Mr Turnbull will be seeking assurances about the current Australian military offensive against Islamic State in the Iraqi city of Mosul and the Syrian border city of Raqqa. Of critical concern is whether progress can be made in the fight against terrorism before January and a change of US administration and a potential change of policy.

Australian military commitments to other theatres of conflict, namely Afghanistan, will also be discussed, in light of Mr Obama’s recommitment to a continued force which Australia has committed to. But key to the discussions, arguably the most important guide to the future of the US-Australia alliance, will be the enduring engagement of the US in the Asia-Pacific region.

Mr Obama’s promised pivot to Asia has fallen short of expectations, raising questions of whether Australia will have to shift to ­greater defence self-reliance.

The question, according to government sources, will be whether a new administration will force an Australian rethink on issues such as the South China Sea. Sources said the meeting would be a ­“debrief” on the state of the US-Australia alliance and the strategic interests that would endure irrespective of the political dynamics of the next administration.