First sign of electoral recovery as Scott Morrison claws back support

The Coalition’s primary vote rises in the first sign of an electoral recovery for the government since the leadership spill.

Scott Morrison has lifted the Coalition and cemented his lead over Bill Shorten. Picture: Hollie Adams.

The Coalition is seeing the first signs of political recovery since the August leadership coup, with a two-point lift in popular support as Scott Morrison cements his lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian has shown a five-point turnaround in the primary vote over the past two weeks, with Labor’s commanding eight-point lead over the ­Coalition narrowing to three points.

The partial revival for the ­Coalition comes amid further bloodletting within the Liberal Party, with former foreign minister and deputy leader Julie ­Bishop, who contested the leadership but was knocked out in the first round, claiming Australia is now internationally known as “the coup capital of the world”.

The latest poll, however, shows a significant fall in Mr Shorten’s approval ratings, with Mr Morrison emerging as a more trusted and authentic leader and with the best net satisfaction rating for a prime minister since February 2016. The improved numbers for the government still point to a significant election defeat but follow a critical victory for the Prime Minister, who last week brought to an end the Coalition’s war with the powerful Catholic schools sector over funding.

The lift in the Coalition’s primary vote to 36 per cent marks a three-point jump from the 10-year low of 33 per cent recorded in the days following the August 24 spill that ended Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership. It is still six points down on the July 2016 election result, which returned the Coalition to government but with a single-seat majority.

A corresponding three-point hit to Labor’s primary vote in this latest poll has seen popular support fall from a 10-year high of 42 per cent two weeks ago to 39 per cent. This has led to a two-point improvement in the two-party-preferred vote for the Coalition, which now trails Labor by 46 to 54.

In the wake of the leadership spill, the Coalition was reduced to the lowest two-party-preferred vote since February 2015 — six months before Tony Abbott was rolled — raising concerns among Liberal powerbrokers that the leadership change may have led to an electoral collapse from which there might be no recovery.

The two-party-preferred ­result still indicates a 4.4 per cent swing against the government on the 2016 election results, which would lead to the loss of up to 20 seats if the results were replicated at an election now and were uniform across all seats.

There was no change to the Greens’ vote of 10 per cent, nor for One Nation, which recorded a primary vote of 6 per cent for the second consecutive poll.

Support for other minor parties and independents lifted a point to 9 per cent.

A separate question confirmed the damage caused by the leadership spill, with the change still playing out as a vote loser for the Coalition.

A total of 31 per cent of voters claimed that a month after Mr Morrison became Prime Minister they were less likely to vote for the Coalition, compared with 24 per cent saying they would be more likely.

The Newspoll is the 41st in a row in which the Coalition has trailed Labor and covers a fortnight in which Mr Morrison was praised for a quick response to the strawberry sabotage crisis and the announcement of a royal commission into the aged-care sector. However, he has also presided over continuing Liberal Party turmoil, including further allegations of bullying and a debate about quotas for women to address a gender imbalance in the Coalition.

Labor’s attempts to capitalise on the Liberal Party’s troubles by announcing a new policy to close the superannuation gap for women if it won government had little impact.

Despite the problems besetting the government, Mr Shorten’s approval ratings fell considerably, with a five-point drop to 32 per cent in the number of people claiming to be satisfied with his performance and a three-point rise to 54 per cent in those dissatisfied.

This resulted in his net satisfaction rating falling to minus 22 from a two-year high in the previous Newspoll of minus 14.

In more bad news for Mr Shorten, a separate question on the authenticity of the leaders revealed a more favourable result for Mr Morrison. When asked who they believed to be more authentic, 46 per cent chose Mr Morrison and 31 per cent chose Mr Shorten. Half of One Nation voters backed Mr Morrison, with just 20 per cent claiming Mr Shorten to be more authentic. Notably, 21 per cent of Labor voters also chose Mr Morrison, with 61 per cent backing the Labor leader, while just 5 per cent of Coalition voters backed Mr Shorten above the Liberal leader.

Supporters of Mr Turnbull are likely to seize on the poll results showing whether the change to Mr Morrison will make voters more or less likely to vote for the Coalition. A total of 36 per cent of voters said it would make no difference to their vote, while 24 per cent said they would now be more likely. But 31 per cent said they would be less likely to vote Coalition with Mr Morrison as leader as opposed to Mr Turnbull.