Federal election 2016: five seats could swing it Coalition’s way

The Coalition is hopeful of forming majority government because of postal and absentee votes in five seats.

The reason the government is nervously hopeful of forming a majority government comes down to the postal, absentee and provisional voting advantage it enjoyed at the 2013 election in four key seats in which the ALP is currently ahead. I’ve hunted down the numbers to explain why.

Counting resumes today and the government leads in 72 seats. This doesn’t include the seat of Grey, which preference flows ­suggest will be picked up by the Nick Xenophon Team, giving it two lower house seats in South Australia.

And within the 72-seat envelope the Liberals are only ahead in the Victorian seat of Chisholm by about 60 votes, a seat they don’t currently hold.

But the table here tells us why Liberals hope to perhaps get to the magic number of 76 seats to form majority government. It lists the four seats in which Labor’s lead is less than the number of postal, ­absentee and provisional votes the Liberals outpolled Labor by in 2013.

These are the real seats to watch today and in the days ahead.

Postal votes historically disproportionately favour the conservative side of politics, and are counted only after the pre-poll and election day votes are added up. This is why Liberals often come over the top of Labor in close counts.

Of course, the flow of postal votes favoured the Coalition in the landslide election of 2013 more than they will at this election, where the national swing was away from the Coalition, not ­towards it. By the same token, Labor didn’t mount a postal vote campaign at this election, which might increase the flow of ­Coalition postals compared with previous elections. This is the great unknown.

You can see that Forde and Cowan highlight a considerably larger postal advantage in 2013 compared with the number of votes the government trails by in these two seats at this election. A narrower differential exists in Capricornia and Herbert, but again if postal votes flow strongly the Coalition’s way it just might come over the top of Labor.

It’s unlikely all four seats will flow the government’s way, but where there is life there is hope, so say Liberal strategists.

Depending on what happens in Grey and Chisholm, Liberals might need to win all four of the seats in the table to get to a majority. A lot would have to go the government’s way for that to happen, but the life and hope the Liberals speak of is contained in these numbers.

Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics at the University of Western Australia.