Dutton PM challenge ‘might help save his seat’

Peter Dutton could improve his chances in his marginal seat if he successfully challenged Malcolm Turnbull, a political expert says.

Peter Dutton could improve his chances of holding his marginal seat of Dickson if he successfully challenges Malcolm Turnbull, a political expert says.

Peter Dutton could improve his chances of holding his marginal seat of Dickson if he successfully challenges Malcolm Turnbull, a political expert says.

But Paul Williams, a long-time political scientist at Griffith University, said a Queensland coup could potentially hurt the ­Coalition in other states at the next federal election.

“It’s not a good place for a man to start his prime ministerial ­career,” Dr Williams said, “(but) if he could seize the leadership of the Liberal Party, that might actually help him (in Dickson).

“Will it save the government? No. Would a Dutton government be re-elected? No. It would probably just block their demise in Queensland, but it probably might accelerate it in other states.”

Mr Dutton, 47, has already hired former state Liberal director Geoffrey Greene to run his ­campaign in Dickson, where his Labor opponent, former journalist and disabilities advocate Ali France, has been on the hustings for five months.

Activist organisation GetUp! is also rallying to oust Mr Dutton, largely because of his roles in immigration and home affairs.

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Ms France was the left’s choice over existing candidate Linda Lavarch from the right, whose husband, Michael, had been the first to hold the seat of Dickson.

While Dickson has changed boundaries, and demographics, Dr Williams said some constituents were still looking for a political saviour. “It’s outer-metropolitan, it’s got a lot of regional flavour, it’s more ripe for your One Nation types than most,” he said.

“There’s a lot of Struggle Street there, and a lot of Struggle Street electorates that are marginal seats will change hands because the electorate is looking for someone to fix their woes.”

Despite a swing to Labor at the last election and having to endure slim margins, Mr Dutton is the longest-serving member for Dickson since the seat was gazetted in 1993.

Mr Lavarch was attorney-general in the Keating government but lost the seat in 1996 to the Liberals’ Tony Smith. The controversial Mr Smith quit the party before the 1998 election, which Labor candidate and former Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot won by 176 votes. She fell victim to the largest swing in Queensland at the 2001 election, allowing Mr Dutton to take a seat in parliament.

Mr Dutton, active in politics since he was a teenager, had been a police officer for nine years before completing business studies and entering the childcare industry.

In his maiden speech in par­liament, he spoke of his desire to “make Dickson an even better place”, citing a need for adequate medical services, roads, strong businesses and public safety. “The fight for a better place in which to live is today made even more ­difficult for many ­reasons, not least of which is the fact that the boisterous minority and the pol­itically correct seem to have a dis­proportionate say in public ­debate today,” Mr Dutton ­declared.

After a term on the backbench, Mr Dutton became a minister in the Howard government, serving first as workforce participation minister and then as assistant treasurer and minister for revenue, before the Coalition lost the 2007 election.

In the Labor years, Mr Dutton held several shadow portfolios, and was criticised for boycotting Kevin Rudd’s apology to the Stolen Generations, something he later said he regretted.