China’s rise will drive defence policy: Kevin Andrews

How the Asian region manages and responds to China’s rise will be the “major driver of the Indo-­Pacific’s strategic future”.

How the Asia responds to China’s rise will be the “major driver of the Indo-­Pacific’s strategic future”, says Defence Minister Kevin ­Andrews.

In the annual Gallipoli memorial lecture in London, to be ­delivered overnight, Mr Andrews describes the rise of China as “a key consideration for Australian planning and policymaking”.

His emphasis on China demonstrates that even with the concern about Islamic State and similar terrorist groups, it is the realignment of power by economically rising Asian nations that will determine Australia’s defence policy.

“While it faces its own long-term internal economic and demographic challenges, China is still likely to gain more regional weight and influence,” he says.

However, Mr Andrews thinks the US will remain the leading military power in the Indo-Pacific: “Notwithstanding China’s growth, the US will remain the single most important country in enforcing a rules-based order.”

He predicts a stable balance ­between the US and China, but that in the next 20 years Australia’s strategic environment will ­become “more challenging”, with more major powers competing more actively for influence.

The lecture is an important statement ahead of the defence white paper, due this year, as it indicates the government will have to recommit to big defence acquisitions, among them submarines.

Mr Andrews also calls attention to Russia’s increased military assertiveness, the modernisation of its Pacific fleet and its provocative activities patrolling near other nations’ borders, including off Australia during the G20 meeting.

On the threat from jihadist groups, Mr Andrews warns it is not only Islamic State, but “other ­jihadist groups in South Asia, the Arabian Peninsula, West and East Africa”, that threaten the West.