‘Zero chance’ of limiting global warming without carbon capture

There was “almost zero chance” of limiting global warming to below 2C without carbon capture and storage.

Delegates and experts attend the opening ceremony of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in Incheon. Picture: AFP

There was “almost zero chance” of limiting global warming to below 2C without carbon capture and storage including land use changes, a report ahead of the IPCC’s 1.5C update said.

PricewaterhouseCoopers said the gap between the current decarbonisation rate and that needed to limit global warming to 2C was widening.

No G20 country achieved the 6.4 per cent rate required to limit warming to 2C this year. At current decarbonisation levels, the global carbon budget for 2C would run out in 2036, PwC said. Each year the global economy failed to decarbonise at the required rate, the 2C goal would become more difficult to achieve.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will release a special report today on the impacts of global warming of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

A final report for policymakers was signed in South Korea at the weekend.

Talks to finalise the report ran into overtime, with Saudi Arabia singled out as trying to block progress. According to reports from Climate Home, Saudi diplomats wanted to emphasise the cost of climate action and downplay the sustainable development benefits.

In the end, the IPCC report ­received unanimous support.

The report will highlight the difference between 2C and 1.5C warming and the challenges in meeting the lower target.

According to the PwC report, global GDP grew by 3.8 per cent last year, largely due to rapid growth in emerging economies such as China and India. This economic growth went hand in hand with a rise in global energy demand of 2.1 per cent, more than twice the rate in 2016. “As most ­increased energy demand was met with fossil fuels, global emissions are now on the rise, having plateaued for the past three years,” PwC said.

Carbon intensity continues to fall at a rate consistent with the previous few years, at 2.6 per cent. “But this falls short of the 3 per cent decarbonisation rate needed to meet the weak national targets pledged in the 2015 Paris Agreement,” PwC said. The gap between current decarbonisation and that needed to limit global warming to 2C was 6.4 per cent a year.

“There seems to be almost zero chance of limiting warming to well below 2C, though carbon capture and storage technologies make this possible,” PwC said.