Whether El Nino or longer summers, it’s hotter than ever

The mercury soared almost 10C above average in southeast Queensland yesterday, linked to an emergin­g El Nino pattern.

Abby Taylor and son Ashton 6, cool down yesterday at the local swimming pool in Bundamba, near Ipswich, west of Brisbane. Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen

Queenslanders in the state’s southeast found relief from an unusual­ autumn heatwave in pools and beaches yesterday as the mercury soared almost 10C above average, linked to an emergin­g El Nino pattern.

The farming towns of Warwick­ and Gatton hit record highs for March, with the temperature rising to 37.4C and 40C respectively.

It was the first time in recorded history that anywhere in the southeast corner of the state had hit 40C on a March day.

Ipswich, west of Brisbane, hit 38.6C yesterday morning, falling just 0.4C short of claiming the title for hottest March day on record.

Closer to the coast, Brisbane reached 34.6C and the Gold Coast hit temperatures in the early 30s, about 5C above normal for this time of year.

Some scientists said yesterday that the abnormally high temperatures were indicating an increasing chance of an El Nino weather pattern this year over Australia’s eastern states.

Bureau of Meteorology climat­ologist Tamika Tihema said the government agency was now on “El Nino watch”.

“Models are suggesting in time we are going to have an El Nino pattern but we are not declaring it yet because not everything has lined up,” she said.

The weather pattern is likely to bring drier and warmer conditions to Queensland, NSW and Victoria over the next few months, with less cloud cover and rain pushing up temperatures through autumn and winter.

Last month, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced that a weak El Nino pattern had formed over the Pacific Ocean. The last El Nino in Australia happened in April 2015 and lasted 12 months, with the weak to moderate pattern affecting the eastern states.

If the BOM declares an El Nino in coming months, Wenju Cai, the director of the CSIRO’s Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, says it would be highly unusual for the pattern to form so late in the season.

NOAA’s Townsville-based sat­el­lite oceanographer William Skriving was less inclined to link the heatwave to the climate patterns, instead warning Queenslanders that summer was likely to last longer than normal.

Climate change is changing weather patterns, making it harder for scientists to predict climate trends and causing more severe weather events, including heatwaves, bushfires and floods.

“These things happened in the past but it is happening a lot more … and there is a lot more energy in the systems,’’ Mr Skriving said. “We are getting hotter, you are going to get more heatwaves.”