Government’s carbon savings target can be cut by half, says report

Independent analysis cuts carbon savings needed to meet 2030 Paris agreement pledge by more than 50 per cent.

The federal government is preparing to slash the amount of carbon dioxide emissions it must save to meet its 2030 Paris Agreement pledge.

Independent analysis has cut the savings needed by more than 50 per cent to less than one billion tonnes over the next decade. The government has said it will release its latest carbon emissions forecasts before the end of the year.

Many expect the new figures to show national greenhouse gas emissions are rising.

But senior sources confirmed as accurate analysis of the long-term picture by energy analyst ­Reputex that shows a dramatic fall in the effort required.

The new analysis comes as the Turnbull government is embroiled in a political storm over plans to consider twin carbon trading policies for the electricity sector and industry.

Details of next year’s planned review have taken the focus off the government’s carefully tailored message of concentrating on ­energy prices and reliability of supply. The federal government has been pushing to reinvigorate national gas supplies.

But a new report by CSIRO yesterday said it was possible for Australia’s power sector to be emissions-free by 2050 with wind, solar and storage.

But this will be balanced against an interim report to state energy ministers on Friday by Australia’s Chief Scientist, Alan Finkel, charged with delivering a national reform blueprint.

Energy policy has come to a head following a series of power failures in South Australia and Victoria and the release of terms of reference for a major review of government climate policy next year. The review is designed to ­ensure Australia meets its Paris commitment to reduce emissions by 26 to 28 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.

The most recent government forecasts, released in March, estimate a total abatement task of about two billion tonnes.

But according to Reputex, government forecasts had relied on “outdated economic forecasts and policy assumptions”.

Reputex said Australian emissions would grow at a “relatively moderate pace” through to 2020 and 2030, well under government projections. “The government’s most ­recent estimate of greenhouse gas emissions to 2030 were released in March 2015, projecting a national emissions trajectory rising to 724 million tonnes in 2030, an increase of 22 per cent above 2005 levels, or 36 per cent from 2015,” Reputex said.

“If we apply this emissions projection as the reference for calculating Australia’s cumulative abatement task between 2020 and 2030 the result is a task of over two billion tonnes. Applying updated assumptions for current policy and economic activity, we lower the government’s 2021-30 abatement task from more than two billion tonnes to less than one billion ­tonnes.”

The lower figure was underpinned by a significant decrease in landclearing rates and electricity sector emissions, driven by lower electricity consumption and the inclusion of proposed policy such as state-based renewable energy targets in the ACT, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria.

By 2050, it is estimated that customers or their agents will spend $200bn on their own power generation, in addition to what the utilities spend. Millions of customer-owned generators will supply 30-50 per cent of Australia’s electricity needs.