Energy report backs Labor renewables target for 2030

Chief Scientist Alan Finkel says Labor’s 2030 renewable energy target could be met easily.

Chief scientist Alan Finkel. Picture Gary Ramage

Chief Scientist Alan Finkel has contradicted the government’s claims that Labor’s 50 per cent ­renewables target by 2030 is irresponsible, issuing a major report that says it could be met easily without jeopardising reliability and without the need for significant investment in energy storage.

The study into Australia’s ­future energy storage needs commissioned by Dr Finkel, says batteries in households with rooftop solar power would be enough to underwrite Australia’s entire energy reliability requirement by 2030.

“Nationally and regionally, the electricity system can reach penetrations of renewable energy close to 50 per cent without significant requirements for energy reliability storage,” the report says.

Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg has described Labor’s commitment to lift renewable’s share of generating capacity to 50 per cent by 2030 as “crazy” and claimed it would cost at least $50 billion.

Launching the Coalition’s Queensland election campaign yesterday, Malcolm Turnbull said Labor’s approach to energy was driven by ideology. “It is ideology and idiocy because its incompetence, its green-left ideology and incompetence wanting a huge renewable target. No plan for backup. No plan for storage. Total rejection of coal in all of its forms. This is a road to ruin,” the Prime Minister said.

But the report, compiled by the Australian Council of Learned Academies, says a 50 per cent target implies only “moderate growth of renewable energy”.

It cites work by the government’s Climate Change Authority that found an emissions intensity scheme would likely result in 50 per cent renewables by 2030, with the retirement of several coal-fired generators.

The report said that if only half the wind and energy projects that have been proposed actually get built, with no more in South Australia apart from those with firm commitments already, renewable penetration would still double from the existing 17 per cent to 35 per cent.

The study says major reliability concerns, demanding massive investments in energy storage, would only arise if the renewables share rose to 75 per cent.

The report exploring three scenarios of low, moderate and high use of renewables is being launched today before a meeting of the Council of Australian Governments Energy Council in Hobart on Friday, which is intended to settle a response to the Turnbull government’s proposed national energy guarantee strategy.

The Prime Minister has strongly advocated the case for energy storage, promising to invest up to $2 billion into the expansion of the Snowy hydro scheme to boost its output by almost 50 per cent with the use of pumped hydro.

The report endorses the use of pumped hydro as the lowest cost option for the bulk electricity storage needed to underwrite reliability, although it cautions on the need to satisfy community concerns that it will not cover the cost of water and land availability for other uses.

However, it also backs the potential for battery schemes such as the 100 megawatt storage being built by US technology firm Telsa for the South Australian government, which have been criticised by Mr Turnbull as “ideology and idiocy in equal measure”.

The report says that storage capacity of 600MW would have been enough to prevent the South Australian blackout in September last year.

“At today’s storage prices, some $800 million would provide up to two hours of supply from these batteries, ample time to respond to the contingency by ramping up reserve generation,” it says.

The report distinguishes between the backup required, sometimes for only fractions of a second, when a power line goes down or a generator goes offline, and the additional capacity needed to balance intermittent supply from wind and solar power.

It says batteries are the ideal solution for the security of the system to deal with short interruptions, while pumped hydro is the best response to the reliability concerns of intermittent renewable energy.

For renewable penetration of up to 50 per cent, concerns of reliability could be met by household batteries paired with rooftop solar power or with better demand management. “Consumer storage would theoretically be sufficient to provide the entire energy reliability requirement,” the report says.

The storage capacity required would only be a maximum 5 gigawatt hours. If all supplied by batteries, the cost would be $11bn, which the report says should be seen in the context of a $70bn investment requirement for the National Electricity Market out to 2030.

Using batteries to secure the system against breakdowns would reduce the cost of ensuring its reliability.

The report shows costs escalate as renewables penetration rises to 75 per cent, with modelling assuming this is reached with South Australia and Tasmania both going to 100 per cent renewables.

It estimates the cost of batteries to provide security against breakdowns would be $22bn, while a further $43bn investment in pumped storage would be required.