Citizenship debacle: Pauline Hanson holds the key to Longman

Pauline Hanson looms as Bill Shorten’s biggest headache in an upcoming ‘Super Saturday’ of by-elections.

One Nation leader Senator Pauline Hanson in the Senate chamber. Picture: AAP

Pauline Hanson looms as Bill Shorten’s biggest headache in an upcoming “Super Saturday” of by-elections, with One Nation preferences likely to play a key role in determining the result in the knife-edge Queensland seat of Longman.

The South Australian seat of Mayo is also a potential gain for the Coalition, with Alexander Downer’s daughter Georgina likely to be preselected to stand in her father’s former seat against Centre ­Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie.

GRAPHIC: Back to the ballot box

Labor will defend four seats after yesterday’s resignations of Susan Lamb (Longman), Justine Keay (Braddon) and Josh Wilson (Fremantle), together with the earlier resignation of Tim Hammond (Perth) for family reasons.

The contests will pile pressure on the Opposition Leader, who will be forced to pitch his political message in four demographically different electorates.

Greens preferences are likely to be a factor in Perth and Fremantle.

Mr Shorten will have to simultaneously appeal to outer-­suburban voters in Queensland, where Labor could be punished for backing away from supporting the Adani coalmine during March’s Batman by-election in Victoria.

Ms Lamb, Ms Keay, and Mr Wilson have all vowed to recontest their seats, as has Ms Sharkie.

Liberal Party sources sought to downplay expectations yesterday that it would gain any seats in the contests, warning that by-­elections tended to result in swings against governments.

Yet the party is eyeing Longman, after the 2016 result when One Nation preferences delivered the seat to Ms Lamb. Senator Hanson has indicated One Nation would be likely to direct preferences to the LNP in the seat, where a swing of 0.8 per cent would see it change hands.

Senator Hanson told The Australian earlier this year that Ms Lamb’s attacks on One Nation were “definitely a tick against her”.

Mr Shorten said yesterday he was “more than confident” that Ms Lamb, who is believed to still be a dual British-Australian citizen, “will be eligible to nominate” by the time the by-election is held.

Ms Lamb broke down in parliament in February, claiming she was unable to provide her parents’ birth certificates to British authorities to renounce her citizenship, as her mother abandoned her as a child.

Citizenship crisis who’s who

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LNP nominations have closed for Longman and are being vetted by the party. Jason Snow, a carer who unsuccessfully contested the state seat of Morayfield last year, would not be drawn on his candidacy. Wyatt Roy, who held the seat between 2010 and 2016, said he would not seek preselection.

Labor will also face a tough contest in Braddon, which Ms Keay held by a margin of 2.2 per cent after beating Liberal Brett Whiteley in 2016. Mr Whiteley is understood to be the frontrunner to contest the seat.

Former Kevin Rudd adviser and West Australian Labor secretary Patrick Gorman is expected to be preselected for Perth, which Labor holds by 3.4 per cent.

In the longtime-Labor seat of Fremantle, where the party goes into the contest with a 7.6 per cent margin, local progressive Mayor Brad Pettitt believes Mr Wilson will be returned. Mr Pettitt was in 2016 reported to have considered contesting Fremantle for the Greens but said he would not contemplate it this time. Ms Sharkie took Mayo from Liberal Jamie Briggs in 2016, with a margin of 5.4 per cent. Adelaide Hills Mayor Bill Spragg said the impact of Ms Sharkie’s advocacy for local issues should not be underestimated.

Mr Briggs, who ruled out running again, said the Downer name gave Georgina the early front-­running for preselection.

Nick Xenophon broke his self-imposed public exile yesterday to tweet: “Rebekha Sharkie is a fantastic advocate for the people of Mayo, and thoroughly deserves to be re-elected.”

Additional reporting: Jared Owens, Paige Taylor