Bishop raises alarm over ‘grey rhinos’

Former foreign minister Julie Bishop will warn that the world faces serious risks — or ‘grey rhinos’.

Julie Bishop warns Australia may be in danger of ‘suffering’ from its success. Picture: AAP

Former foreign minister Julie Bishop will warn that the world faces serious risks — or “grey ­rhinos” — including worsening US-China relations, rising world debt levels and the struggle over Brexit, in a speech in Hong Kong today.

In an advance copy of her speech, Ms Bishop will also warn that Australia may be in danger of “suffering” from its success, with most people under 45 having never experienced a recession.

Her speech will also argue that Australians should not write the Morrison government off as it goes into the federal election, with the polls likely to narrow as election day approaches.

“Do not write us off,” Ms Bishop will tell the Australian Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong.

“That would be a big mistake.”

Taking a leaf out of a recent speech by Chinese President Xi Jinping — who warned China to brace itself for unforeseen black swan events as well as grey rhinos (risks that should be obvious but are ignored by the vast majority) — Ms Bishop will say that the world faces an increasing risk of grey rhinos.

“We will be hearing a lot more about grey rhinos,” she will say.

Ms Bishop says the global ­financial crisis was not a black swan event — unforeseen — but more likely a grey rhino that had been ignored.

“Potential grey rhinos include a rapid increase in private/public debt in many nations since 2008, a worsening of US-China relations, an ongoing struggle over an orderly Brexit and the global ramifications, and the capacity of governments to support financial markets should another banking crisis erupt,” she will say.

Ms Bishop, who was one of the federal government’s most senior members before her resignation as foreign minister with the fall of Malcolm Turnbull last August, is speaking as the US and China begin high-level talks over a ­potential trade deal.

In a veiled reference to the Trump administration, the speech will warn that countries should continue to support an “international, rules-based order” and not seek “to undermine it to pursue their own narrow self-­interest”.

“Those nations which have benefited most from the international rules-based order should be the staunchest advocates,” Ms Bishop says.

The week has seen a sharp ­increase in US-China tensions, with the US Justice Department announcing a wide range of charges against Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei and its chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, who was arrested on December 1 in Vancouver, and a security chief’s warning to congress of the dangers of closer ties between China and Russia.

Ms Bishop will say she hopes the rhetoric from both sides can lead to a peaceful outcome.