Baillieu leaves his run late

Today's AFL grand final repeat is just one factor conspiring against the opposition

Victoria's Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu outside Parliament House in Melbourne. Picture: Aaron Francis

Today's AFL grand final repeat is just one factor conspiring against the opposition

IT is not Collingwood and St Kilda players, coaches or even fans who have been most put out by today's repeat of the grand final: the biggest loser of the delayed result is Ted Baillieu.

The Liberal Opposition Leader is just eight weeks from the state election and needs what party insiders are calling "clear air" to convince Victorians he should be the next premier. And circumstances have not been on his side.

After patiently biding his time during the long federal election campaign and its aftermath, the plan was to give electors a break during the footy finals and for the Coalition to hit the ground running after the final siren sounded.

But this strategy has been dashed, with another week lost discussing the merits of the AFL result, various player and coach movements and, of course, who will win the re-staged grand final.

There has been no room for politics in footy mad Melbourne, let alone selling a message to voters who are so disenchanted with politics they could not decisively vote in a government at federal level. Having football on the front page of the Herald Sun every day this week is just one example of where the minds of Victorians are at this moment.

Adding to this, Premier John Brumby has been absent all week following the death of his elderly father, which has meant there's been no debate on policy issues.

These delays and lack of clear air for the Coalition to sell its case to the public -- which really began with Kevin Rudd's political assassination in June -- is incredibly frustrating for Baillieu. He needs to make an impression on voters and he needs to do it fast.

The Coalition must get a uniform 6.5 per cent swing across the state and 12 seats to take government from Labor.

The Greens may take up to four inner-city seats from Labor -- if they are preferenced by the Liberals -- but any kingmaker role comes into play only if the Coalition gets a significant swing in the first place.

And as much as Brumby and Labor are suffering from being an 11-year-old government with the accompanying perception of tiredness, Baillieu is having to overcome a similar if lesser issue.

He has been leader for four years and polling suggests he has still not made a lasting impression on Victorians. As John Howard famously said, you cannot "fatten a pig" on market day, and many believe Baillieu is running out of time.

Liberal insiders say the Victorian party is already blaming Tony Abbott and his failure to secure government -- rather debatably -- for any loss on November 27.

According to political commentator Paul Strangio, the strong federal Labor vote in Victoria, despite the hung parliament result, has hurt the state Coalition.

Victoria was the only state where Labor picked up two seats from the Liberals, and that probably saved Julia Gillard's Labor from complete defeat.

"The result definitely would have knocked the wind out of the sails of the Liberal Party down here," Monash University's Strangio tells Inquirer.

"It would have had a deliberating effect on the Liberal Party to see how they underperformed in Victoria. And it would have reinforced the perception that the party has been simply treading water for a long time."

The most recent Newspoll, published in The Australian at the end of August, would also have been a blow. It showed Brumby clawing back support after a significant slide.

Labor's primary vote jumped from an 18-year-old low of 34 per cent to 38 per cent and the Coalition vote dropped from 40 per cent to 36 per cent.

Before this poll, Baillieu's popularity had been steadily increasing the Liberal vote while Labor's was in free fall, and Brumby became the first premier in 10 years to have a higher dissatisfaction rating than satisfaction among voters.

It came off the back of an appalling few months for Brumby, with his reluctance to listen to voter concerns about increasing violence, coming to a head with the Indian students' debacle. He also had to deal with a public transport system that always performs badly in the summer heat and a by-election in Labor's heartland that saw a 12 per cent swing against his government.

But the momentum that Baillieu seemed to gain at the start of the year has been stalled by the all-consuming federal political game that began with Rudd's demise and is still going, with federal parliament's "new paradigm".

The most crucial two months of the year are yet to come but Baillieu faces an uphill battle to convince Victorians they should ditch Brumby and take a risk on him.

Voters may be annoyed at the arrogance of the Labor Premier, fed up with problem-plagued trains and may be fearful of crime, but they do have their jobs. Economically, Victoria is performing well and that cannot be undervalued at the ballot box.

So at this point in time, Baillieu needs a serious game-changer. He needs to up the ante, take some risks and present significant and different policy options to Victoria. And he needs to do it now.