Abbott is both the Coalition's strength and the reason it probably won't win the election

TONY Abbott is the reason the Coalition is competitive at the election, yet he is also the reason they probably can't win it.

TONY Abbott is the reason the Coalition is competitive at the election, yet he is also the reason they probably can't win it.

Abbott's net satisfaction rating of minus 15 is abysmally low.

He is a significant drag on the Coalition's vote.

This is a sad (and unfair) irony for the Opposition Leader, given that it is only because of his efforts that the Coalition is competitive.

For the first time since Julia Gillard became PrimeMinister we can compare her net satisfaction rating with Abbott's.

The results show that replacing Kevin Rudd has given Labor a leadership edge over the Coalition and also exposed Abbott's weaknesses. Gillard has started with a net satisfaction rating of plus 19, the highest recorded by any leader since Rudd's rating early last December. That was before his plans to tackle climate change went off the rails, starting with the collapse of the Copenhagen talks.

At the crucial moment Abbott is required to muscle up against a new adversary, his personal support has fallen to its lowest level since he became leader. And the trend lines suggest his ratings will continue to head south.

On Sky News yesterday Liberal frontbencher Scott Morrison responded to a question about his leader's poor personal ratings with the following: "At the moment, there's a bit of theatrics about the personalities, but as the choice firms up, then it's our hope it'll focus on policy." That's hardly a ringing endorsement of Abbott's pulling power with the voters. Translation: We hope our leader doesn't harm our chances.

If Liberals get nervous about the negative impact their leader might be having on the Coalition campaign, ill-discipline could start to creep in.

That could undo the hard work Abbott has done to make the conservatives competitive in the wake of the debilitating internal divisions caused by the emissions trading scheme.

In the aftermath of this election, assuming Abbott loses, he will remind colleagues that they faced electoral oblivion before he took over. It would be a fair point, but credit for stoic defeats doesn't help opposition leaders in the long run, especially if their personal ratings continue to be poor.

That's why this election is so important -- whether for Gillard, who executed an elected prime minister, or Abbott, who has poor personal ratings as baggage.

Second chances won't come easily for either leader if they don't win this time around.