US mid-term elections: ‘We will do very well’, says Trump

Donald Trump predicts Republicans will defy history and do ‘very well’ in today’s mid-term elections, despite the latest polling.

President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a rally at Allen County War Memorial Coliseum, Monday, Nov. 5, 2018, in Fort Wayne, Ind. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

Donald Trump has predicted ­Republicans will defy history and do “very well” in today’s mid-term elections despite new polls pointing to a Democrat victory in the House of Representatives.

US voters went to the polls overnight to determine the shape of congress in what has been ­described as a referendum on Mr Trump’s first two years as ­president.

Mr Trump said yesterday he was “willing to accept” that the polls were largely about him, but he was confident that Republicans would defy both history and the polls to do well.

“I think the Senate — we’re doing very well. And I think we’re going to do very well in the House. If you look, over a hundred years, for whatever reason, the party with the president doesn’t do very well. I think we’re going to do pretty well,” he said ahead of his final campaign rallies yesterday.

“The energy that this whole party has now, it’s really incredible. Whether it’s the great economy, or the immigration — our strong stand and their (Democrats) very weak stand, where they have open borders, which, to me, means nothing but crime — I don’t know. But I can tell you that there’s a lot of energy.”

In a frantic final day of campaigning the President flew to ­rallies in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri and Indiana as he highlighted his twin themes of illegal immigration and the economy.

US polls will close across the country at about 10am AEDT today on the US east coast and 1pm AEDT on the west coast.

In this final week Mr Trump has sharply stepped up his rhetoric on illegal immigration, describing the migrant caravan walking towards the US border as “an invasion” and a threat to the safety and security of Americans.

He has portrayed the Democrats as weak on border security and crime, untrustworthy on the economy and likely to restore “job-killing regulations”.

Democrat candidates as well as elder statesmen such as former president Barack Obama and former vice-president Joe Biden have campaigned attacking Republicans on health care, tax breaks for the wealthy and on their hardline immigration policies and plans for a border wall.

A CNN poll yesterday showed the Democrats now enjoy a 13-percentage-point gap over Republicans in the House, suggesting that they are likely to win the 23 new seats needed to secure a majority. The poll found Democrats have a 55 per cent to 42 per cent advantage over Republicans in a generic poll.

The main driver of this is likely to be women voters, who the poll found favoured Democrats by a sizable 62 per cent to 35 per cent, while men were almost equally divided between the two parties.

But despite the Democrat lead, the final result will depend heavily on the pattern of individual seats, with at about 30 House seats considered to be toss-ups.

The Republicans are confident they will retain the Senate where they have a 51-49 majority but where Democrats have to defend 10 seats in states won by Mr Trump in 2016. Democrats are likely to lose at least one of these states, North Dakota, and would need to pick up at least two of the few vulnerable Republican seats such as Arizona and Nevada.

The CNN poll confirmed that Mr Trump is the biggest motivating factor for voters, with about seven in 10 voters saying that when they cast their vote, it will be to send a message for Mr Trump, both good and bad. It found 42 per cent of likely voters would vote to signal their opposition to the President while 28 per cent would be voting to show their support.

Historically the first mid-terms after a presidential election sees the party of the president lose an average of about 30 seats, and often higher if the president’s approval rating is below 50 per cent.

Mr Trump’s approval rating is in the mid-40s, although this is close to the highest level of his presidency so far.

Republicans have been buoyed by figures in the past week showing low unemployment and strong jobs and wages growth. Mr Trump has told voters that the healthy economy is a result of his leadership and pro-business approach.

Cameron Stewart is also US contributor for Sky News Australia