Boris Johnson’s mate looms as kingmaker in Thailand poll

An old Etonian who spent his gap year touring Thailand with Boris Johnson could determine the outcome of Sunday’s elections.

Abhisit Vejjajiva poses for a selfie at an rally in Bangkok this week. Picture: AP

A British-born, old Etonian who spent his gap year touring Thailand with “good friend” and future UK politician Boris Johnson could determine the outcome of the Southeast Asian country’s elections this Sunday, as the leader of its oldest party and likely kingmaker.

With neither the pro-military parties nor pro-democracy forces, led largely by exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, tipped to win an outright majority in Thailand’s first election since the 2014 coup, Abhisit Vejjajiva’s Democrat Party could decide who will govern the country.

The royalist, free-market Democrats are expected to win the second or third largest number of seats in the 500-seat lower house in a poll heavily stacked in favour of a re-badged junta, thanks to a 2017 constitution that mandates all 250 Senate seats go to military appointees and key in a country where governments are confirmed by a combined vote of the lower house and the Senate. Both sides will likely need the Democrats’ support to form a ­majority government.

Yet 54-year-old Mr Abhisit, whose tenure as prime minister from 2008 to 2011 was tainted by a deadly military crackdown on pro-Thaksin “red shirt” supporters, has other ideas.

This week, the Oxford-educated economist ruled out supporting junta leader Prayuth Chan-ocha’s bid to become prime minister, the only nominee for Palang Pracharat (PPRP), though he says he would still consider a coalition with the pro-military if it “does not carry on with non-democratic processes”.

While Mr Prayuth can count on the support of the Senate, some suggest he might struggle to sec­ure the necessary 126 lower house seats to hold on to power, if not the outright lower house majority his government would need to pass legislation.

Mr Abhisit has also said he won’t work with Pheu Thai, the party he claims remains captive to Mr Thaksin’s self-interest but which is expected to maintain its stranglehold on the seat-rich north and northeast of the country and win the single largest number of lower house seats.

That sets the stage for a minority Thai government unable to pass legislation and facing a possible censure motion as early as the first session of the new parliament.

He says neither side can offer the stable government Thailand needs to buoy its lagging economy, and that only a Democrats-led administration, with him at the helm, can avoid another era of civil unrest.

“We don’t think supporting ­either option — one where General Prayuth carries on governing the country or a return to (pro-Thaksin) Pheu Thai, which has not changed their ways — is going to help the country,” Mr Abhisit told The Australian this week.

“Our aim is to be at the core of the government. We want to revive the economy as quickly as possible. We have the most concrete plans to address problems with farmers and workers.”

That includes an income subsidy plan for hard-hit rice farmers and reduced taxes for low- and middle-income workers.

With Thailand’s economic growth (4 per cent) lagging many of its neighbours, and two-thirds of the country’s wealth in the hands of less than 5 per cent of the population, Thais are running out of patience with both sides. Yet most analysts predict any gains made by the junta’s PPRP or the new pro-democracy, youth-dominated Future Forward Party will come at the Democrats’ expense.

Mr Abhisit, who was 44 when he became prime minister, says he understands the appeal of Future Forward’s Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, a 40-year-old billion­aire who has wide support among some seven million first-time voters for calling out the military “dictatorship”, promising to slash its budget and return the coup-happy army to barracks.

But Mr Thanathorn faces possible disqualification by Thailand’s Constitutional Court, which has already dissolved pro-democracy party Thai Raksha Chart for nominating as its prime ministerial candidate the older sister of Thai King Vajiralongkorn.

Mr Abhisit insists the Democrats and Future Forward agree on many issues; the need to reduce the military’s budget, address Thailand’s income inequality, improve the welfare system and amend the constitution to fully restore democracy. But he says a referendum would not build the necessary consensus on amending the constitution and favours a process that puts pressure on the military Senate to support changes that will need its vote.

On Thailand’s lese majeste laws, which the junta has been accused of using to pursue critics, he says there has been “too liberal an interpretation” and a Democrats government would set up an advisory council to ensure they were “not used for political purposes”.