Ardern looks to youth vote to make history

Jacinda Ardern has pinned her fading hopes of a fairytale result in today’s NZ election on getting out the youth vote.

New Zealand Labour Party leader Jacinda Ardern. Picture: AP

Jacinda Ardern has pinned her fading hopes of a fairytale result in today’s New Zealand election on getting out the youth vote that has propelled Labour to the cusp of a gripping victory.

As the charismatic opposition leader wound up her campaign with a flurry of appearances in Auckland, Prime Minister Bill Eng­lish said every vote would count in a yoyo election that ­appears to have swung his way at the death.

“Voters need to understand that a few votes here and there could make a massive difference,” he said from the National Party campaign bus, which was town-­hopping to Auckland.

Labour’s poll numbers fell away sharply this week, down six points by one count, as Mr English hammered away at Ms Ardern’s tax policy and election costings.

Ms Ardern is hoping for a late boost from young people enrolling at the same time as they vote today, the first election this has been allowed. If she loses, Labour still has a shot at cobbling together a governing coalition in the likely event the parliament is hung.

“I still maintain this is going to come down to whether or not ­people turn out to vote,” she said.

The New Zealand Herald’s election forecast model says National will win the popular vote, but not by enough for the government to be returned in its own right for a historic fourth term.

National’s 45 per cent share of the vote would deliver 56 seats, five short of a majority in the 120-place Beehive. Labour, on 37 per cent, would lift from 32 to 47 seats, a testament to Ms Ardern’s powerful campaign. A deal to co-operate with the Greens would take the Labour-led bloc to 54 seats.

Election-eve polls pointed to New Zealand First holding the balance of power on nine seats, giving its colourful 72-year-old leader, Winston Peters, the “kingmaker” say on who will be prime minister.

For Ms Ardern, 37, it was a bittersweet end to a campaign that opened with Labour 20 points adrift of National as she found her feet as leader, having been thrust into the job on August 1. She juggled campaign stops around the funeral of her grandmother, who died on Monday. “It’s obviously a day of highs and lows,” she said.

“Obviously farewelling my grandma (was) really difficult, but this is the last day to really push again and make sure every New Zealander knows what’s at stake, the potential and the opportunity we have in this election.”

Mr English, 55, closed his campaign by warning that tax and interest rates would rise under Labour: “Labour are planning a very different way of managing the economy. It’s a clear choice of going ahead with National and going backwards with Labour.”

Ms Ardern said he was “scaremongering”.

University of Auckland political analyst Raymond Miller said the volatility of the campaign was reflected by fluctuating polls that swung early to Labour as “Jacindamania” took hold, and back to Nat­ional when Mr English exploited her vulnerability on the detail of tax and fiscal policy.

If Mr English is returned, Nat­ional will be the first party in almost half a century to win four consecutive terms. This will allow him to step out of the shadows of leading the National Party to its worst election defeat in 2002.

If Ms Ardern wins, she will be NZ’s youngest prime minister.