Victorian voters more fearful of blackouts, price hikes in energy transition

Pollster Tony Barry says the survey results show the Victorian government is electorally vulnerable on energy, and voters ‘rarely reward governments for making them poorer and colder’.

Despite the Allan government’s anti-gas stance, the RedBridge poll shows Victorians are more fearful of being left in the dark, and more in favour of gas playing a role in the transition to renewables, than their interstate counterparts.

Victorian voters are more inclined than those in other states to believe there is a strong possibility of blackouts in the transition to net zero, that energy costs are higher, and that gas has a role to play, despite their government’s anti-gas stance.

The Redbridge EnergyShift tracking poll – conducted in May and compared with the same questions asked of voters in February – shows Australians in all states overwhelmingly prioritise cost and reliability in the shift to lower-emissions energy generation, and remain sceptical about the ability of the federal government to meet its greenhouse gas emission reduction targets.

The Victorian government’s controversial gas substitution road map saw gas connections to new homes banned on January 1, and Energy and Resources Minister Lily D’Ambrosio has publicly disagreed on multiple occasions with federal resources counterpart Madeleine King over the role of gas in the energy transition.

Despite this, the poll shows Victorians are more fearful of being left in the dark, and more in favour of gas playing a role in the transition to renewables, than their interstate counterparts.

Redbridge pollster Tony Barry.

Redbridge director Tony Barry, a former Liberal strategist who runs the polling outfit with fellow director and former Labor strategist Kos Samaras, said the latest poll results showed Victorian voters had “lost confidence” in the management of the energy network and transition to renewables.

“Victorian voters have strongly negative assessments and expectations of the transition process and are rejecting the minister’s claims about reliability and affordability,” Mr Barry said.

“Energy is a sleeper issue … and these numbers indicate the Allan government is electorally vulnerable in this policy space. Voters rarely reward governments for making them poorer and colder.”

The poll showed voters nationally strongly support a shift to renewable energy sources, and overwhelmingly prefer any increase in electricity supply comes from solar or wind. But they are sceptical that Australia will meet its greenhouse gas emission targets, and less than half rate the performance of the federal government on the transition to renewables as good or very good.

Crucially, the poll also shows Australians are not willing to pay more for renewable energy.

Victorian Energy & Resources Minister Lily D'Ambrosio. Picture: NCA NewsWire / David Crosling

Victorians were significantly more supportive than voters in any other state of the use of natural gas in the energy transition (64 per cent compared with 56 in Queensland and 54 in NSW), and 71 per cent of Victorians believed blackouts were very or somewhat likely, compared with 67 per cent nationally. A net 70 per cent of Victorians believed energy costs were much or somewhat worse, compared with 68 per cent nationally; 88 per cent of Victorians agreed state governments should have a mix of energy sources, including gas, solar and wind, compared with 85 per cent nationally, and 57 per cent of Victorians supported new gas projects compared with 52 per cent nationally.

Australian Pipelines and Gas Association CEO Steve Davies said Australians, particularly Victorians, “overwhelmingly” recognised a diversified energy system, including natural and renewable gas, would best deliver an affordable, reliable pathway to net zero.

Ms D’Ambrosio said the Victorian government had “always been clear” that gas has a role to play in the energy transition.